World Series 2022: FiveThirtyEight predicts Astros win but gives Phillies a 'strong chance'

The ABC-owned product also predicted Astros wins during the clubs last two trips to the World Series, which they lost.

Chaz Miller Image
Wednesday, October 26, 2022
Phillies have 'strong chance' to upset Astros, FiveThirtyEight says
FiveThirtyEight, an ABC-owned website that uses stats to drive stories, predicts the Astros again as World Series champs over the Phillies.

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Baseball is in a league of its own when it comes to numbers, and those statistics can come in handy if you're looking to predict the outcome of the 2022 World Series between the Astros and the Phillies.

"I think it's the most stat-driven of all the sports, because they have kept the most stats for the longest period of time," Neil Paine, FiveThirtyEight sports editor, said.

While casual fans can use figures like batting average and home runs to make a guess at the outcome of a game, FiveThirtyEight, which is an ABC-owned website that tells stories through data, takes their prognostication to the next level with their annual baseball predictions.

Those predictions, by the way, currently have the Astros with a 67% chance of knocking off Philadelphia for the 2022 World Series crown.

Many factors go into those predictions, including hundreds of years' worth of stats, but Paine said this is what the forecast really takes into consideration.

"It really tries to answer the question of 'how good are you playing right now?'" Paine said. "It does use wins and losses. It uses margin of victory. It uses location of the game - who the opposing starting pitcher was, who your starting pitcher was, rest days, travel days."

Keep in mind, however, the game is ultimately played on the field and not on a spreadsheet.

FiveThirtyEight had the Astros winning in their previous two World Series appearances, but they lost to Washington and Atlanta, respectively.

Paine had this to say as it relates to the current 2022 prediction, which will change after each game in the series is completed.

"Essentially, two out of every three times you play this series, the Astros win. And one out of every three, the Phillies win," he said. "The Phillies have a very strong chance."

2022 World Series schedule: Astros vs. Phillies

  • Game 1: at Houston, Friday, Oct. 28, 7:03 p.m.
  • Game 2: at Houston, Saturday, Oct. 29, 7:03 p.m.
  • Game 3: at Philadelphia, Monday, Oct. 31, 7:03 p.m.
  • Game 4: at Philadelphia, Tuesday, Nov. 1, 7:03 p.m.
  • Game 5*: at Philadelphia, Wednesday, Nov. 2, 7:03 p.m.
  • Game 6*: at Houston, Friday, Nov. 4, 7:03 p.m.
  • Game 7*: at Houston, Saturday, Nov. 5, 7:03 p.m.

* if necessary

More Astros stories during 2022 World Series run:

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