World Series 2022: FiveThirtyEight predicts Astros win but gives Phillies a 'strong chance'

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Baseball is in a league of its own when it comes to numbers, and those statistics can come in handy if you're looking to predict the outcome of the 2022 World Series between the Astros and the Phillies.

"I think it's the most stat-driven of all the sports, because they have kept the most stats for the longest period of time," Neil Paine, FiveThirtyEight sports editor, said.

While casual fans can use figures like batting average and home runs to make a guess at the outcome of a game, FiveThirtyEight, which is an ABC-owned website that tells stories through data, takes their prognostication to the next level with their annual baseball predictions.

Those predictions, by the way, currently have the Astros with a 67% chance of knocking off Philadelphia for the 2022 World Series crown.

Many factors go into those predictions, including hundreds of years' worth of stats, but Paine said this is what the forecast really takes into consideration.

"It really tries to answer the question of 'how good are you playing right now?'" Paine said. "It does use wins and losses. It uses margin of victory. It uses location of the game - who the opposing starting pitcher was, who your starting pitcher was, rest days, travel days."

Keep in mind, however, the game is ultimately played on the field and not on a spreadsheet.

FiveThirtyEight had the Astros winning in their previous two World Series appearances, but they lost to Washington and Atlanta, respectively.

Paine had this to say as it relates to the current 2022 prediction, which will change after each game in the series is completed.

"Essentially, two out of every three times you play this series, the Astros win. And one out of every three, the Phillies win," he said. "The Phillies have a very strong chance."

2022 World Series schedule: Astros vs. Phillies

• Game 1: at Houston, Friday, Oct. 28, 7:03 p.m.
• Game 2: at Houston, Saturday, Oct. 29, 7:03 p.m.
• Game 3: at Philadelphia, Monday, Oct. 31, 7:03 p.m.
• Game 4: at Philadelphia, Tuesday, Nov. 1, 7:03 p.m.
• Game 5*: at Philadelphia, Wednesday, Nov. 2, 7:03 p.m.
• Game 6*: at Houston, Friday, Nov. 4, 7:03 p.m.
• Game 7*: at Houston, Saturday, Nov. 5, 7:03 p.m.

* if necessary

More Astros stories during 2022 World Series run:

• Astros pitchers Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia rock hair extensions for MLB postseason hairdos
• Astros' star Yordan Alvarez family sees him play in postseason for the first time
• Rally nuns return to Minute Maid Park to cheer on Houston Astros
• Astros-Yankees predictions: Who will rule the ALCS?
• Houston restaurant's potty humor comes at Yankees' expense
• Bronx Bombers vs. Bayou City: Looking at the Astros-Yankees rivalry
• Major League melting pot: Looking at the demographics of the Houston Astros
• Astros' Yordan Alvarez merchandise flying off shelves in wake of playoff heroics
• Astros fan claims to have quit job to attend ALCS Game 2
• Bizarre moment during ALCS Game 2 after Astros fan storms field to take selfie with Altuve
• Gone with the wind: Yankees manager says Minute Maid Park's roof open 'kind of killed us'
• Houston sweeps for a 4th trip to the World Series
• Astros land in Houston ahead of World Series
• 2022 MLB World Series, 42 years in the making
• World Series tickets already selling out before Houston clinches ALCS
• Houston won't host just 1 Philadelphia team on World Series week
• Yes, Minute Maid Park is throwing World Series road-game watch parties

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