July anticipated to be hot but not expected to see record-breaking temps, experts say

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- High temperatures in the afternoon are expected to be back above 95 degrees on Tuesday, which would mark day 14 of the early summer heat wave. Knowing that temperatures are already well above average and have been for about two weeks, ABC13 Meteorologist Elyse Smith looked into whether this early summer heat wave is a precursor to a hot summer ahead.

The video above is from a previous report.

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Earlier in June, the Climate Prediction Center released its monthly outlook for July. Specifically for southeast Texas and Houston, this region is highlighted as having an above-average month temperature-wise.

This could mean more afternoon highs in the mid-upper 90s and possibly some steamy mornings. In a related story regarding this current heat wave, a typically overlooked but essential aspect of the heat is how overnight lows fall less.

In other words, morning low temperatures have recently been around 80 degrees, five degrees above average for this time of year.

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Back to the summer outlook, though, there is one summer from the past 20 years that sticks out as having a similar hot end to June like what we're experiencing right now. And that was the summer of 2009, also an El Niño year.

June 2009 included a heat wave that lasted 22 days through the end of the month. Houston's current heat wave is at 14 days. Keeping that in mind, here's what the rest of that summer looked like.

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Houston has been under excessive heat warnings for nearly two weeks now, and many are wondering how. ABC13 Meteorologist Elyse Smith breaks it down as to how global temperatures are connected.

July, no surprise, was also pretty toasty. And with that outlook from CPC for next month, this July could include those hotter temperatures too.

As for August and even September, those months were pretty normal weather-wise in 2009. The only exception is a brief streak of 100-degree days early in August, but then the heat began to slowly back off into September. And as for the tropics, it was quiet and inactive for Texas.

That said, don't be surprised if this July is also hot, but that doesn't necessarily mean we're in for record-breaking summer heat.