Can Astros win World Series down 0-2? We crunch the numbers

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BySteve Campion KTRK logo
Friday, October 25, 2019
The odds that the Astros stave off elimination while in DC
So you're saying there's a chance?? Down 0-2 and with the World Series turning to Washington, the Astros' odds of a comeback is....

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- The odds of the Houston Astros winning the World Series aren't good with the team in a 0-2 hole.

Game 3 on Friday night might be their only chance to turn things around.

Philip Ernst studies, dissects, and analyzes numbers all the time. He's an associate professor of statistics at Rice University.

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He said while the odds aren't great, there is hope for fans. According to Ernst, models put the Astros' chances of becoming champions again at 19 to 27 percent.

"Unfortunately, the odds are not in their favor right now," he admitted. "There's a 26 percent chance, according to the most simple model, that they will win the World Series."

Though, he says relax, 'Stros fans.

"But there is good news to look forward to if they win Game 3. The Vegas odds go up to about 41 percent of them winning the World Series. If the Astros win both Game 3 and Game 4, then they have a 63 percent chance of winning the World Series. If they win Game 3, 4, and 5, then they're already at a 86 percent chance of winning the World Series. There's definitely hope," he said.

Bottom line. The Astros need a win Friday in Washington.


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Let's just hope the Washington Nationals just jinxed themselves by doing this.

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