Colorado State University researchers issue unofficial 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

Hurricane season is less than two months away, but based on a prediction from Colorado State University, it is shaping up to be one for the books.

The university's pre-season forecast released Thursday predicts an "extremely active" season in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.

Researchers are calling for 23 named storms this Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

Of those named storms, 11 are expected to become hurricanes, and five to reach major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

Behind the prediction

The CSU team anticipates the season to be so active because "current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions."

Scientists also cite record-warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures as a primary factor for the prediction. They said a warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic helps form and intensify hurricanes.

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Given the combined signals, researchers said they have a "higher-than-normal confidence" for an April outlook that the season will be very active.

As hurricanes are expected to make landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean, experts remind residents that it only takes one hurricane to make it an active season.

How this hurricane season compares to previous years

The university said this hurricane season has characteristics similar to those of 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010, and 2020.

"Our analog seasons were all very active Atlantic hurricane seasons," Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at CSU and lead author of the report, said. "This highlights the somewhat lower levels of uncertainty that exist with this outlook relative to our typical early April outlook."

The team predicts that 2024 hurricane activity will be about 170% of the average season from 1991-2020. By comparison, 2023's hurricane activity was about 120% of the average season. They said the most significant hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was Hurricane Idalia, which made landfall at Category 3 intensity in Florida, causing billions in damage and eight direct fatalities.

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