Texas voter turnout falls in 2024 election despite record registration numbers

More Texans registered to vote in the 2024 November elections than ever before, but turnout lagged behind the most recent presidential race, especially in the state's most populous urban counties that Democrats hoped to dominate by centering issues such as abortion and the state of democracy.

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A record 18.6 million Texans were registered to vote in the election, according to state data. About 11.3 million people, or 61% of registered voters, cast ballots in the general election, according to preliminary, unofficial data.

While the raw number of Texans who voted this year rivals 2020's total, it marks a nearly 6 percentage-point drop in turnout compared to four years ago.

This year's turnout drops were most dramatic in Texas' big blue counties including Harris, Bexar and Dallas, where Democrats on the ballot - including Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. House Rep. Colin Allred - expected to win comfortably. Harris underperformed in those counties, surpassing Trump in Harris County by a modest 5 points, a steep drop from 2020, when President Joe Biden outperformed Trump by 13 points. Allred fared slightly better, but not well enough to stave off the higher Republican turnout in fast-growing red counties including Montgomery and Collin.

Early voting participation also declined this year. About 9 million Texans voted in person early or returned their absentee ballots by Nov. 1, compared to 9.7 million voters doing so in 2020.

Only a fraction of the state's 254 counties saw an uptick in voting participation. Among them were Wichita, Victoria and Erath, all reliably Republican.

Political scientists said 2020 may have been an anomaly, since the COVID-19 pandemic energized voters, and some Texas counties temporarily reduced barriers to voting that year. Texas offered three weeks of early voting in 2020, compared to two weeks in 2024, and some counties also allowed drive-thru voting.

In 2016 and in 2012, about 59% of registered voters turned out, a number more in line with this year's rate.

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"We should be cautious about making direct comparisons to 2020 because that election was so unusual," said Joshua Blank, director of research for the Texas Politics Project. "It's easy to look at this and say we have lower turnout, but given that the state has been known as a bastion of low turnout, another way to look at this is as a continuation of higher than traditional turnout."

Blank added that an uptick in registered voters does not automatically translate into increased turnout. Some people register to vote when they renew their driver's license and don't necessarily have intentions of casting a ballot. Others decide not to vote because of the state's complex voter laws.

Voter laws in Texas are among the most restrictive in the country. The state's voter ID requirements are stricter than other states that only require a signature to vote. And Texas only allows mail-in votes for a small subset of voters, unlike other states that allow universal mail-in ballots.

Confusion over a GOP-backed voting law that requires voters to include a state identification number on their mail-in ballot application could have also prevented some Texans from casting a ballot, experts said.

The state's increase in registered voters comes amid an explosive population boom in the suburban areas surrounding Houston, Dallas and Austin. Democrats had hoped that growth in those areas would propel their candidates to victory and help flip the state blue.

But Democrats face an uphill battle when it comes to motivating voters to turn out, said University of Houston political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus.

"We have a one-party state, and there's a perception that for the party not in power, their votes don't count," Rottinghaus said. "A lot of people take that to heart and don't vote as a result."

SEE ALSO: 9 million Texans voted early in 2024. Here's how that compares to previous years.

In Collin County, one of the fastest growing pockets of the state north of Dallas, the Republican Party engaged voters by placing themselves at the center of non-political events, including a car show and a beer pong competition, said Republican Party Chair Shelby Williams. That effort helped establish the party's presence and translated into relatively high turnout numbers. About 68.5% of registered voters cast a ballot in Collin County, down from 75.7% turnout in 2020, but well above the overall 2024 turnout rate.

"We have to engage the countless Republicans who don't yet know they are Republican," Williams said. "It is important to break outside our own political echo chamber and get out in the community with swing voters and promote the Republican brand."

Texas has one of the youngest populations in the country, with a median age of 35. Young voters typically align with Democrats, but Trump managed to perform equally well as Harris among Texas voters between the ages of 18 and 29, according to exit polling from Edison Research.

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