Gulf disturbance up to a 40% chance of development

June 30
7 am update:
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into the Gulf disturbance today , if it remains over water. The disturbance remains disorganized with a medium (40%) chance for development before moving into the middle Texas coast on Thursday. As that happens, heavy bands of rain will move in and begin to soak many areas near the coast. Widespread heavy rain is likely to fall on Friday. Most of the rain will be welcome but some street flooding will be possible in a few spots. Stay tuned.

June 29
7 pm update:
Hurricane Hunters flew into the Gulf disturbance today and found a center of circulation with no thunderstorms near it. That means it's still disorganized and keeps a 40% chance for development before moving into the middle Texas coast on Thursday. As that happens, heavy bands of rain will move in and begin to soak many areas near the coast. Widespread heavy rain is likely to fall on Friday. Most of the rain will be welcome but some street flooding will be possible in a few spots. Stay tuned.

June 29
7 am Update:
A medium chance for tropical development of a disorganized system in the Gulf. Formation odds at 40%. More of the tropical models are turning the disturbance north towards Matagorda Bay before it makes it to land. The more time it spends over the warm waters of the Gulf, the better the chance it has for development. Either way, it seems likely that its moisture will track our way and give us the best chance for rain we've had in months. Stay tuned!

June 28
7 pm Update:
Development odd of the disorganized system in the Gulf remains at 40%. More of the tropical models are turning the disturbance north towards Matagorda Bay before it makes it to land. The more time it spends over the warm waters of the Gulf, the better the chance it has for development. Either way, it seems likely that its moisture will track our way and give us the best chance for rain we've had in months. Stay tuned!

June 28
1 pm update:
The National Hurricane Center has brought up the chance of development for this area of low pressure to a 40% chance. This system is expected to move slowly west in the next couple of days. At the same time, we MAY see some slow development and this could turn into a short-lived tropical depression before moving onto land. Either way, it looks like this could be a good rainmaker for us in SE Texas as we head into the end of the week.

7am update:
An surge of tropical moisture along the Texas Gulf coast is now up to a 30% chance of development over the next two days. Regardless of its potential development, the track of this disturbance will have a significant impact on our rain chances for the remainder of the week. A more northerly track would bring significant rain to SE Texas (1-2 inches for Houston) through the week, while other models showing a more westerly track limit our rain to just a few tenths of an inch in the same timespan.

We also have Potential Storm 2 in the Caribbean, which is likely to become our next named storm (Bonnie), but will have no impact here in Texas. After grazing northern Venezuela the storm will eventually be making landfall in Central America.

June 27
Potential Storm 2 has formed well east of the Windward Islands in the central Atlantic. Models continue to show that system impacting Central America and staying well clear of Texas. On it's heels in the open Atlantic is another potential area of development, it's far enough away and has a low enough chance of developing that it isn't a high priority or concern for the time being.

The National Hurricane Center is also highlighting an area much closer to home for potential development. We're keeping an eye along the Texas Gulf Coast for a low pressure system to spin up, though the chance of it developing into a tropical system is low. Regardless, it will beef up our rain chances as we move through this upcoming week.

June 26
Two areas of potential development that we are keeping an eye on, the first is a disturbance in the Gulf which has a 20% chance of development. While that system has only a low chance of development, it will bring an influx of moisture to our area and increase rain chances through next week.
The second potential system is in the open Atlantic and now has a 70% chance of development. While this is likely to become "Bonnie" in the coming days, models have consistently kept the storm well away from SE Texas, bringing it instead into Central America. We'll keep a watch on both systems as we move through next week.

June 25
As of this morning the National Hurricane Center is now monitoring an area of low pressure expected to form off the Texas Gulf Coast in the early to middle of next week. The chance for development is low (20%), but it could bring some welcome rains next week.

Another area of potential development much farther away, this one in the Eastern Atlantic, is also being monitored by the NHC with a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days. We still have plenty of time to monitor that system for any potential impacts to the US.

June 24
We're continuing to watch a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic that now has a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days. There's still plenty of time to watch this system, so we'll keep our eyes on it as we move in to early July, but there's no immediate or imminent threat, and it's unlikely to pose any risk to us in Texas. If this does become our next named storm of the season it would be "Bonnie".





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