Eye on the Gulf: Tropical low could spin up in the western Gulf this weekend

Eye on the Gulf: New zone to watch for tropical development
A tropical low could spin up in the western Gulf this weekend.

June 22

We're still seeing some impacts from Alberto with elevated coastal flooding and a high rip current risk at our local beaches.

We are also monitoring another low in the southern Gulf that looks to follow in Albert's footsteps. While this system is similar to Alberto in many ways, including an eventual path into Mexico, it is a much smaller system, so the impacts here in Southeast Texas will be negligible.

June 21

We continue to monitor an area of disturbed weather that will move into the Bay of Campeche this weekend into next week. Another tropical low could spin up in nearly the same spot Alberto did. Right now there is a 60% chance of development over the next 7 days, but it could send more rain toward Texas, especially South Texas.

There is also another area off the coast of Florida near the Bahamas we're monitoring for development too. It has a 50% chance of development this weekend.

June 20

Alberto made landfall near Tampico, Mexico Thursday morning and is now a tropical depression over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Alberto's winds, rains and enhanced tides extend well north of the center and will continue to have impacts on southeast Texas coastal communities until Thursday evening.

We will also be watching the Bay of Campeche this weekend into next week as another tropical low spins up in nearly the same spot Alberto did. Right now there is a 50% chance of development over the next 7 days, but it could send more rain toward Texas, especially South Texas. There is also another area off the coast of Florida near the Bahamas we're monitoring for development too.

June 19 10 a.m.

Potential Storm One is now classified as Tropical Storm Alberto. The NHC has been able to find a well defined center of circulation which is why it is now getting classified as a tropical storm. It is expected to jog west making landfall in Mexico late tonight into Thursday morning as a tropical storm. The naming of this storm does not change the impacts we are feeling here in Southeast Texas. We are still going to be looking at rainbands moving through parts of SE Texas today and coastal flooding caused by the large wind field generated by Alberto.

This weekend we'll also be watching as another tropical low could try to spin up again over the Bay of Campeche. Right now, it looks like that disturbance would mainly stay in the southern Gulf but it could send moisture our way early next week resulting in a chance for rain for SE Texas.

June 19 7 a.m.

Potential Storm One still has not organized enough to be designated a tropical storm as it is crossing the Bay of Campeche, and time is running out for it to do so before making a landfall along the northeast coast of Mexico late Wednesday night. Regardless of whether it becomes Alberto or not, the storm will bring wind and heavy rain in northeastern Mexico and up into Texas.

We are also monitoring the same area again for this weekend, as the NHC has designated a low chance for a second system to try to organize in that area.

There is also still a low chance for development north of the Bahamas over the next few days, with the risk extending to the Southeast U.S. coast.

June 18

A broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche has been designated as Potential Storm One. It is expected to intensify into Tropical Storm Alberto by Wednesday. It is currently heading north but should make a westerly turn toward Mexico on Wednesday. It is expected to make landfall in Mexico as a tropical storm Thursday morning. This is a very large system so we could potentially see tropical storm force winds as far north as Port O' Connor. Our main impact here in Southeast Texas will be from the moisture getting pushed this way around this system, leading to rounds of heavy rainfall. Street flooding and coastal tide flooding are the biggest concerns.

June 17 4 p.m.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing forecasts for Potential Storm One in the southwest Gulf. It is predicted to become Tropical Storm Alberto. This is an unusually large tropical circulation, so even with the center going into Mexico, the Tropical Storm Watch extends all the way north to the waters offshore from Galveston Island. Torrential tropical downpours are likely to move into Southeast Texas starting Tuesday night and continue through most of Wednesday. Significant street flooding and moderate coastal flooding are likely. A Flood Watch starts at 7 p.m. Tuesday and continues to 1 a.m. Wednesday. ABC13 Weather Alert Days continue for Tuesday and Wednesday.

June 17

All attention is focused on the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico where there is a 70 percent chance for tropical development. If this system strengthens to a Tropical Storm, it will be named Alberto. Regardless of development, an influx of deep tropical moisture from this system will impact parts of Texas and Louisiana starting Monday through Wednesday. The core of this system will likely move into Mexico by Wednesday, but the heavy rains will extend throughout coastal Texas. While rainfall totals in our area are far from set in stone, we currently expect 3-5 inches of rain in the I-10 corridor, with 5-8+ inches possible along the coast.

June 16 7 p.m. Update

A large area of showers and storms currently over the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche where conditions are favorable for tropical development. That being said, there is now a 50 percent chance for development over the next 48 hours and 70 percent chance for a tropical depression to form in the next 7 days. This is the tropical system that will send torrential tropical rains to Southeast Texas beginning Monday and lasting through Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday are ABC13 Weather Alert Days now with the potential for street and urban flooding, potentially flash flooding too. This is as that swirling area of thunderstorms could organize and become Alberto, the first named storm of the season, this week in the Gulf. Tonight NOAA's Hurricane Hunters have release plans to fly to the Bay of Campeche this week to investigate the potential tropical system.

Elsewhere in the tropics, there is still a 30 percent chance for development off the east coast of Florida near the Bahamas. A tropical wave will bring heavy rains to Florida and potentially New Orleans later this week as it moves from east to west.

June 16

Development chances for our tropical low in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are currently at 60%. Regardless of whether this becomes a named storm or not, our impacts will largely be the same. Our concern in Southeast Texas comes from deep tropical moisture streaming in Monday through Thursday, increasing the potential for flooding, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

The core of this system will likely move into Mexico by Wednesday, but the heavy rains will extend throughout coastal Texas. While rainfall totals in our area are far from set in stone, we currently expect 3-5 inches of rain in the I-10 corridor, with 5-8+ inches possible along the coast.

June 15 7 p.m. Update

The National Hurricane Center increased odds for development n the Bay of Campeche to 60% tonight. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two and could make a slow trek north towards Texas. While any kind of named development or landfall is still unclear, those kinds of impacts are not expected at this point for Southeast Texas. Regardless, potentially three days of rounds of tropical rains is expected Monday through Wednesday of next week. Street and low-lying area flooding is possible with these showers across the region. For the coastline, coastal flooding as well as high tides and strong rip currents are expected all of next week as this system spins to the south.

Additionally, there is a new area of potential development off the east coast of Florida and over the Bahamas. There's a 20 percent chance for development there. Regardless, this tropical wave could send more heavy rains to Florida, a state that already got walloped by heavy rains last week.

June 15

The odds of development on a potential storm in the Southern Gulf of Mexico remain at 50%, but regardless of any development we can expect impacts here in Southeast Texas. Heavy rains capable of street flooding, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are possible Monday through Thursday. While the likely outcome is that the center of circulation moves west into Mexico, the surge of deeper tropical moisture could bring 3-6 inches of rain or more to parts of southeast Texas. We have Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday as ABC13 Weather Watch days.

June 14 Evening Update

The National Hurricane Center holds the tropical development odds at 50% for the tropical low expected to spin up over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding still look likely along Texas beaches. Because the low pressure has not yet developed, uncertainty remains on the exact impacts for Texas. Our most likely scenario remains that the low slides west into Mexico, keeping the significant flooding rains over Mexico and South Texas. If the low forms farther north than we are expecting, then a pathway toward South Texas is possible, which would increase our rain chances and amounts. We are keeping you on "Weather Watch" for now on Monday through Wednesday when the majority of local impacts are expected to occur.

June 14

We are monitoring an area of disturbed weather for potential tropical development in the southwest Gulf of Mexico over the Bay of Campeche for early next week. The National Hurricane Center has given this area a 50% chance of development over the next 7 days. While the core of the system will likely drift west into Mexico, tropical moisture from that system is expected to move into Texas after Father's Day, increasing our chances for heavy rainfall and street flooding. There will also be a steady current of strong southeasterly winds that will likely lead to dangerous rip currents, high seas, and minor coastal flooding. We've now got you on "Weather Watch" Monday through Wednesday when we expect the majority of our local impacts from this tropical weather system.

June 13 Evening Update

The National Hurricane Center holds the tropical development odds at 40% for the tropical low expected to spin up over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are looking like along Texas beaches. Because the low pressure has not yet developed, there is still some uncertainty on the exact impacts for Texas. Interestingly, an AI version of one of our main tropical computer models is trending toward a track into South Texas. Watch this evening's tropical update video for a deeper discussion on that development. While we await more certainty, we've put you on "Weather Watch" for now on Monday through Wednesday when the majority of local impacts are expected to occur.

June 13

Tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico has increased to 40% over the next 7 days. Regardless of development, heavy rains, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are looking like along Texas beaches. Because the low pressure has not yet developed, there is still some uncertainty on the exact impacts for Texas. For now, prepare for the possibility of torrential tropical downpours returning to Southeast Texas Monday through Wednesday of next week.

June 12 Evening Update

The odds of tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico have increased to 30% over the next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are looking like along Texas beaches. Because the low pressure has not yet developed, there is still some uncertainty on the exact impacts for Texas. For now, prepare for the possibility of torrential tropical downpours returning to Southeast Texas Monday through Wednesday of next week.

June 12

Monitoring two areas of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. Formation odds remain low for both. A broad area of low pressure near the Gulf coast of Florida is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This is system is expected to move off the Southeast coast later this week.

There is also an area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that needs to be watched for potential development. Regardless of development, deep tropical moisture could move into Texas after Father's Day, increasing our chances for heavy rainfall and gusty winds early next week.

June 11

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is expected to move northeast toward Florida during the next day or so and offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast later this week. Slow development is possible over the next 7 days, but the probability remains low at 20%. Regardless of development heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Florida during the next few days.

We are also monitoring the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next several days as it is possible a tropical low may try to spin up and that tropical moisture could move into Texas after Father's Day, increasing our chances for heavy rainfall.

June 10

No tropical development is expected in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basins over the next week. In the next 6-12 days we'll be watching for a tropical low to bring in deep tropical moisture into the Gulf, but as of now it's just a potential system that we are keeping an eye on. The average date of the first named storm in the Atlantic is June 20th.

June 9

No tropical development is expected over the next 7 days. We are keeping on our eyes on the potential for some broad low pressure to develop late next week in the gulf, which will spread deeper tropical moisture into Florida, but shouldn't impact our weather over the next week. Beyond that we'll monitor to see if any of that deeper tropical moisture makes it here into Southeast Texas as we move into the week after Father's Day.

June 8

There remains no immediate threat of any tropical troubles, with no development expected in the Atlantic Basin over the next 7 days. In the next 8-14 days we'll be watching for a tropical low to bring in deep tropical moisture into the Gulf, but as of now it's just a potential system that we are keeping an eye on.

June 7

In the short term (through this weekend and into next week), there are no tropical systems with no development expected.

In the longer-term (mid-to-late June) we are keeping an eye on the southern Gulf and western Caribbean for potential development.

June 6

The tropics remain quiet for now and tropical development is not expected through the weekend.

The Climate Prediction Center has highlighted an area over the western Caribbean, or southeast Gulf of Mexico for tropical development between June 12-15. Tropical development will be possible in this area due to low wind shear and record warm waters over the Caribbean and Gulf. We'll be watching it closely.

June 5

The Atlantic Basin remains quiet and no tropical formation is expected over the next 7 days.

June 4

No tropical development expected over the next 7 days as another dust cloud moves off the coast of Africa.

June 3

There are no tropical threats across the Gulf of Mexico, or across the Atlantic Basin for the next 7 days.

In the eastern Pacific, a weak area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions do not appear favorable for significant tropical development, and the system is expected to weaken during the next day or so.

June 2

Hurricane season is starting off on a quiet note. No development is expected in the Atlantic Basin over the next 7 days. With record warm waters and low wind-shear, it won't stay quiet for long.

June 1

June 1st marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season. There are no major threats across the Gulf of Mexico, or across the Atlantic Basin for the next 7 days. Widespread dust moving off the coast of Africa will also limit tropical development.

2024 Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued its highest-on record hurricane forecast for the 2024 hurricane season. But when it comes to life along the Texas Gulf Coast, ABC13 meteorologists explain exactly what Houston-area residents need to know to plan ahead, and protect their families.

All categories of storms are expected to exceed the typical number seen every year, National Weather Service forecasters announced Thursday in a news conference for the 2024 hurricane outlook.

NOAA scientists predict between 17 and 25 named storms, compared to an average of 14; between eight and 13 hurricanes, compared to an average of seven; and between four and seven major hurricanes, compared to an average of three.

RADAR MAPS:

Southeast Texas

Houston

Harris County

Galveston County

Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties

Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties

Brazoria/Matagorda Counties

During hurricane season, remain prepared and make sure you download our ABC13 Houston app!