NFL divisional round betting trends to know: Fade the Chiefs?
The NFL playoffs began last week with all four wild-card games going under the total for the first time since 2012, but don't necessarily count on that to continue. That season, all four divisional round games actually went over the total. And since 2010, the over is 24-12 in divisional playoff games.
Recently, big favorites have been strong bets in the playoffs. Since 2011, favorites of at least nine points are 8-2 ATS in the postseason, with double-digit favorites going 6-0 ATS in that span. Right now, Caesars has Baltimore and Kansas City listed as double-digit favorites. There have not been two double-digit favorites in this round since 1998 (both won and covered).
Two 6-seeds reached this round in Tennessee and Minnesota. No. 6 seeds are 0-8 outright against No. 1 seeds over the last eight postseasons, though they are 3-3-2 ATS. However, since the 2016 postseason, all 11 playoff games involving 6-seeds went under the total.
One quirky recent trend in the divisional round: Saturday home teams are 6-0 ATS in the last three divisional rounds, while Sunday road teams are 5-1 ATS.
Here are the betting nuggets to know for this weekend's slate:
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-7), Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET
Since 2014, San Francisco is 1-12-1 ATS as a favorite of at least six points (9-5 outright), including 0-6-1 ATS this season. Each of San Francisco's last five games was decided by seven or fewer points, and all had game-winning plays in the final 10 seconds.
Jimmy Garoppolo is the 10th quarterback to make his postseason debut for a No. 1 seed under the current playoff format. The previous nine are 4-5 outright and 2-7 ATS.
Kirk Cousins is 2-13-1 ATS and 1-14 outright against teams that finished with at least 12 wins; however, the one win came last week at New Orleans.
Minnesota won on Sunday in wild-card weekend and now plays on Saturday in the divisional round. Wild-card teams in that spot are actually 18-12 ATS all time (9-21 outright). The last two teams to win their divisional round games outright -- 2012 Baltimore and 2010 Green Bay -- both went on to win it all.
Since upsetting San Francisco on the road in the divisional round in 1987, Minnesota is 0-8 outright and 1-7 ATS in its second postseason game in a season.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-10), Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Baltimore covered nine of its final 10 games in the regular season, and it won its final 12 games of the season outright.
Baltimore is 36-0 all time as a double-digit favorite including the playoffs, the only active franchise to never lose a game in that spot. Baltimore has never lost as more than a 9.5-point favorite, and it has never lost at home as more than an 8.5-point favorite.
At age 23, Lamar Jackson could become the youngest quarterback to be a double-digit favorite in the playoffs in the Super Bowl era. However, quarterbacks age 23 or younger are 1-11 outright and 2-10 ATS in the last 10 postseasons.
Baltimore is 5-2 ATS this season against teams with winning records.
Mike Vrabel is 7-1 ATS and 6-2 outright as an underdog of at least four points, including winning all three games in that situation this season.
Tennessee is the fourth team to upset the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick New England team prior to the AFC Championship Game. Each of the previous three failed to win or cover in its next playoff game.
The over is 9-2 in Ryan Tannehill starts this season. He is 7-3-1 ATS as a starter with Tennessee.
The road team has won all three playoff meetings between these franchises.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-10), Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET
Deshaun Watson is 13-4 ATS in his career as an underdog and 10-8 SU as an underdog in his career. This is the second-largest spread Watson has faced in his career. In 39 career NFL starts, Watson has lost by double digits only three times, including just once as an underdog.
Houston beat Kansas City as a 3.5-point road underdog in Week 6. This is the 14th postseason matchup in the last 35 seasons between non-division teams where the visiting team already upset the home team in its building earlier in the season. The road teams are 3-10 SU and ATS in those postseason rematches.
Kansas City is 3-8 all time at home in the postseason and 1-10 ATS, and it has been favored in all but one of those games. However, the only cover came in last year's divisional round against Indianapolis.
Kansas City closed the regular season on a six-game winning and cover streak. The under went 4-1-1 in those games.
The over is 7-3 in Patrick Mahomes starts when the total is 50 or higher.
Andy Reid is 18-9 ATS and 22-5 SU off a bye week in his career, including the playoffs.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-5), Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET
Green Bay has won eight straight meetings at Lambeau Field including playoffs, and it has covered six straight meetings at home.
Russell Wilson is 26-13-2 ATS in his career as an underdog including playoffs, covering 10 of his last 12 games. He is also 10-2 ATS and 7-5 outright in his career as an underdog of at least four points.
Seattle has lost eight straight road games in the divisional playoffs (2-6 ATS).
Seattle is 6-2-1 ATS on the road this season including playoffs and is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 road games dating back to October 2018.
Green Bay is 3-1 outright and ATS against teams that finished with at least 10 wins this season.
Aaron Rodgers is 10-5-1 ATS in the playoffs in his career.
