Betting buzz: What's behind the Jets being curiously favored over the Texans on TNF?
Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective.From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans with a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
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Oct. 31: Why the Jets -- not the Texans -- are favored Thursday
Greenberg: It has been one of the most talked-about NFL betting lines of the season: Why are the New York Jets favored over the Houston Texans for "Thursday Night Football" in Week 9?
The Aaron Rodgers-led Jets have lost five games in a row -- the past two with Davante Adams on the roster, including to the bottom-dwelling New England Patriots -- while the Texans are 6-2 and leading their division after being one of the hottest teams at the end of last season.
Given all of that, how are bookmakers justifying making New York a consensus two-point favorite? It all comes down to all of the usual factors, some of which are hidden under the surface.
"While the Jets have struggled, the Texans have not been their best either," BetMGM senior trading manager Tristan Davis told ESPN over email. "Our power rating makes it a pick'em on a neutral field."
DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN that the teams are "not that far apart" in the book's power ratings, explaining that they are similarly rated on paper and neither has done much to help itself improve in the ratings. Houston, in particular, has not properly built on last season's hype, going 3-5 against the spread this year, with a straight-up loss and a missed favorite cover in the past two weeks.
The next major factor in this line is injuries. The Texans have been without WR Nico Collins for the past three weeks and will be without him for at least one more as he recovers from a hamstring injury. They also lost offseason addition Stefon Diggs to an ACL tear last week.
"Who are they going to throw it to? Because Nico's not going to be back till next week," Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel said on the sportsbook's weekly podcast. "So, I think the perceived offensive struggles in this game is what is keeping the Jets as that small favorite."
Home-field advantage, as tenuous as that has been for the Jets this season, is also playing a factor. While New York is averaging just 17.7 points per home game this season, 27th in the league, Houston has had its own struggles in its four away games, going 2-2 SU and ATS, and posting only one "convincing" win in New England. The Texans have also allowed more points than they've scored in those contests overall.
Finally, there's the betting action on this game, which has shaped into a classic "pros vs. joes" matchup.
"The public does not seem to think the Jets have any business being favored as this is one of the most lopsided betting splits of the season with the Texans taking around four times as many bets on the money line as the Jets," said a FanDuel trader. "We have also seen almost double the number of bets on the Texans spread compared to the Jets."
All of the major books report a large majority of tickets written for Houston on the money line and spread, with the latter seeing the least at FanDuel with 66% and ESPN BET the most at 89.8%; that book also notes an astounding 93.4% of money-line wagers on the Texans.
That said, every single book reports a positive handle split for the spread and money line favoring New York, with FanDuel delineating a majority 59% of spread handle with the Jets, and Caesars noting 58% of money-line handle on them.
It's also worth noting that despite all of the public action, the line has continued to move in New York's favor. Several books opened with the Texans as small favorites and quickly had to flip the line because of overwhelming money coming in for the Jets early. DraftKings opened with Jets -1 and were pushed to make the Jets bigger favorites.
"It's the sharp guys out there that actually thought [Jets -1] was too short. So I believe we had the right number up initially," said Avello. "Regardless of what happens in this game, we can't say as oddsmakers that we put up a bad line."
He added that in-game betting could be very popular for this contest. Either way, Thursday night's Halloween contest is sure to be a trick to some bettors and a treat for others.
Oct. 30:Colts, Ravens cause stir in betting markets with midweek moves
Doug Greenberg:Joe Flacco launched his NFL career as the starting quarterback for the Baltimore Ravens back in 2008. As he prepares to take on a more prominent role for the Indianapolis Colts in Week 9, his former team is making moves of its own, with both having tangible effects on betting line moves and action.
On Tuesday, Flacco was named the starting quarterback for Indianapolis, taking the reins from struggling second-year signal-caller Anthony Richardson. Flacco performed admirably in relief of an injured Richardson earlier this season, throwing for 716 yards, seven touchdowns and just one interception in a little under three games.
Bookmakers seem to believe in Flacco over Richardson, as they dropped the underdog Colts from +6 to +5 immediately following the news, according to ESPN BET odds. DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello says that Indianapolis is still very much contending for the playoffs, and the move to Flacco makes sense given his pedigree and recent success.
"It is their best option right now, and so the line has dropped," Avello told ESPN. "Now, you gotta remember some of this has to do with the Vikings not playing well lately, and maybe they've lost a little mojo and a decline in power ratings."
Indianapolis is tied with the Washington Commanders for a league-best 7-1 record against the spread, and at BetMGM, the team shortened from +150 to +125 to make the playoffs despite losing to the divisional rival Houston Texans in Week 8.
Still, the Colts are road underdogs this week, which makes them an inherently appealing fade to much of the betting public, despite the favorable line movement. DraftKings and ESPN BET both report that a majority of tickets that have come in since the Flacco news are with the Minnesota Vikings, though both report positive money splits for Indianapolis and BetMGM says a majority of bets and handle are with the Colts.
As for Baltimore, the news that they acquired WR Diontae Johnson from the Carolina Panthers actually did very little for their short- and long-term odds because, as Avello puts it, "this team is already loaded."
As a result, the Ravens have largely maintained their marketwide -9 or -9.5 favorite status over the Denver Broncos for Sunday's contest and haven't seen much, if any, movement in the futures market.
The big money seems to believe in the bounceback spot for Baltimore after the Ravens were upset by the Cleveland Browns last week: Upwards of 63% of the money is backing the Ravens spread at BetMGM and DraftKings, with ESPN BET also reporting a positive money split.
Oct. 29: Sports Equinox sees bump for cross-sport parlays
Doug Greenberg:Monday marked the 31st "Sports Equinox" in history and the only one taking place in 2024. With the NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL and MLS all in action, bettors celebrated the occasion the best way they knew how.
Since Monday morning, sports betting tracking tool Pikkit says that it saw 11,050 parlays placed at sportsbooks around the country that used the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL. For reference, the same timeframe a week prior saw only 345 such parlays, an over 3100% increase (with the obvious caveat that not all of those games would have been played on the same day).
Pikkit, which allows bettors to sync up and track their sportsbook accounts, says that the New York Yankees moneyline (-150 at ESPN BET) was the most popular leg of these parlays with 1,750 containing it. Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline (-275) and Juan Soto over 0.5 hits (-180) were the next most popular in 1,410 and 1,150 parlays, respectively.
Regardless of cross-sport parlays, the NFL reigned supreme in total bets, per usual, with ESPN BET reporting the "Monday Night Football" contest between the New York Giants and Steelers as its most popular event of the night by tickets; Pittsburgh came in as the overall most-bet moneyline out of all the evening's events. World Series Game 3 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Yankees was the second-most-bet event, but the Denver Nuggets and Atlanta Hawks moneylines were both more popular than either moneyline in that contest.
The Sports Equinox proved to be a difficult night for New York sports teams in general: New York City became the first metro area to lose an NFL, MLB, NBA and MLS game in the same night, per OptaSTATS, with the upstate Buffalo Sabres also falling on Monday night.
Oct. 28: Dodgers remain Game 3 underdogs after Ohtani odds adjustment
Purdum: Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani is expected to play in Game 3 of the World Series on Monday night in New York, but the Dodgers are still underdogs.
The New York Yankees are as high as -160 favorites at ESPN BET, with the Dodgers listed as +135 underdogs for Game 3. The Dodgers have been underdogs in only 15 games this season, including the postseason, the fewest of any team. They are 4-11 in those games.
Ohtani is dealing with a partially dislocated shoulder suffered in Game 2. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Sunday he expects Ohtani to play Monday.
Caesars Sportsbook vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said they moved the price on the Yankees up "10 cents" due to Ohtani's injury, a slight adjustment that reflected the bookmaker's belief that Ohtani would play.
"It is the World Series, and players (rarely) get a chance to win it all," Mucklow told ESPN on Sunday. "The injury would have to be significant for him not to give it at least a go, which swayed our cautious line move. Postseason baseball is about pitching. It may have been more of a move if he had been pitching this year, but this is not the year."
John Murray, executive director of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said his shop also opened the odds to win Game 3 with the Yankees a little higher because of the "must-win factor" and Ohtani's injury. The Dodgers lead the series, 2-0. Murray said the price on the Yankees has come down 10-12 cents since it opened.
Ohtani is +320 to hit a home run in Game 3 at ESPN BET.
Oct. 24:Kennesaw State pulls off second-largest upset of CFB season
Greenberg: The beauty of college football is one never knows where or when a massive upset might be lurking.
On Wednesday night, the Kennesaw State Owls notched their first win of the season with a 27-24 victory over the Liberty Flames after coming into the contest as 27.5-point underdogs, per ESPN BET odds. It's the second-biggest outright upset of the season, just behind Northern Illinois (+28.5) over Notre Dame and ahead of Vanderbilt (+22.5) over Alabama.
That second outright win by an underdog of 27 points or greater through October is tied for the most in such FBS matchups since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, according to ESPN Research. The Owls were +1300 underdogs on the money line coming into the contest and were as long as +2500 on the live line.
The start of the NBA season meant that this contest might not have lived up to the handle of previous midweek college football games, with BetMGM saying that all of Wednesday's NBA games took more bets than Liberty-Kennesaw State. Nevertheless, the members of the public who did bet on it largely lost, as BetMGM, DraftKings and ESPN BET all reported a majority of bets and handle on the Flames' spread, topping out at 74% of the tickets and 83% of the money.
There is still time this year for more huge outright upsets: Since 2020, there have been at least four outright upsets of 22.5 points or more every season, with a high of six in 2021, per ESPN Research.
