'It was devastating': Astros getting little time to get over 9th-inning collapse to AL-best Orioles

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- First thing's first: the Houston Astros hold a 96% chance to make the postseason and a two-in-three chance to win the American League West and a bye into the AL Divisional Series, ESPN Analytics calculated on Tuesday.

The defending World Series champions have 11 games left to solidify another division title, but the sour taste coming from that 12th-from-last game is still on the minds of many fans.

On Monday, the 'Stros went blow for blow with the AL's No. 1 seed, the Baltimore Orioles, in a game that saw a combined 26 hits and five lead changes between the teams. The regular season game was every bit of the rollercoaster ride that fans can expect in the postseason.

It's that back half of the matchup that is getting examined. The Astros led by two runs heading into the seventh inning before allowing two scores, tied at 5-5. Houston, though, got a go-ahead home run from Jose Abreu in the bottom half of the inning, followed by an insurance homer by Martin Maldonado in the eighth inning.

So a 7-5 lead is safe, especially with All-Star closing pitcher Ryan Pressly getting the save opportunity in the ninth, right? Right?!

After collecting the first out in the inning, Pressly, who has 30 saves to his name in 2023, tossed six pitches to Baltimore's batters, resulting in back-to-back singles representing the tying runs. Ask any pitcher and they'll tell you uneasy scenarios like this aren't supposed to get to them.

However, it was the following batter, Cedric Mullins, who made sure the O's slept happy Monday night in Houston, crushing a slider to right-centerfield to score him and the two baserunners, giving Baltimore the 8-7 advantage.

In a game that was about to go final, Houston had to head to the bottom of the ninth to salvage a win. The most notable part of the half-inning for Houston was Yordan Alvarez's lead-off base-reach off of a throwing error and subsequent advancement to second base on a pitching error.

Manager Dusty Baker opted for pinch-runner Jake Meyers to replace Alvarez, with the hope of getting a faster baserunner home. Meyers advanced to third on an Abreu line out, where the tying score was 90 feet away.

What stuck out in this sequence was a Kyle Tucker groundout to the second baseman. A debate can be had, but with Meyers' speed, a score could have been made despite the grounder going shallow. Instead, the outfielder remained at third base, never to make it home after a Chas McCormick strikeout.

For Pressly, who got the losing decision, the defeat marks his sixth blown save. Also, strangely enough, Baltimore had to go into late-game heroics the day before against Tampa Bay after being down, which was the team's postseason-clinching victory.

'That hurt a lot'

Houston holds a razor-thin lead over rivals Texas and Seattle for the AL West. Entering Tuesday, both the Rangers and the Mariners are tied at a game-and-a-half behind the Astros.

Still, despite the favorable odds to go for a repeat championship, the stunning loss could either serve as a wake-up call for Baker's club or a sign of a bigger collapse to come - the 'Stros would be in the mix for one of the three AL wild-card spots if they miss out on the division title.

"It was devastating," Baker said after Monday's game. "But you've got to get over it. ... That hurt a lot."

Houston is 7-9 so far in September, and if it weren't for Seattle and Texas boasting just as woeful 6-11 and 7-10 records in the last month, respectively, the Astros would be far from the division championship conversation. And that might be where fans can find some comfort.

"You feel like we're about to break out," Baker said. "Because we're hitting some balls hard - we just don't have much to show for it."

In any case, the playoff fates of Houston, Texas, and Seattle are likely going to come down to the final series of the season.

What's left for the 'Stros

Record, as of Tuesday: 84-67

• Tuesday: vs. Baltimore, 7:10 p.m.
• Wednesday: vs. Baltimore, 1:10 p.m.
• Friday: vs. Kansas City, 7:10 p.m.
• Saturday: vs. Kansas City, 6:10 p.m.
• Sunday: vs. Kansas City, 1:10 p.m.*
• Monday, Sept. 25: at Seattle, 8:40 p.m.
• Tuesday, Sept. 26: at Seattle, 9:05 p.m.
• Wednesday, Sept. 27: at Seattle, 8:40 p.m.
• Friday, Sept. 29: at Arizona, 8:40 p.m.
• Saturday, Sept. 30: at Arizona, 7:10 p.m.
• Sunday, Oct. 1: at Arizona, 2:10 p.m.+

All times are CT.

* - denotes final Astros home game of 2023 regular season

+ - denotes final Astros game of 2023 regular season

The Associated Press contributed to this report.