Organizations predict an above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season with 13 to 18 named storms

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- If Houston knows anything, it's hurricanes. Now, we're getting our first glimpses at what the 2025 hurricane season will look like.

The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1, but some organizations have already released their predictions.

Last week, AccuWeather said we could see 13 to 18 named storms, with three to five of those being major hurricanes at Category 3 strength or higher. AccuWeather believes this year could be similar to 2024 -- one of the most devastating and costliest hurricane seasons on record.

Beryl was the earliest Atlantic basin Category 5 hurricane on record. Because of its catastrophic damage -- it, along with Helene and Milton, have all been retired from the hurricane name list.

This week, experts -- including ABC13's Chief Meteorologist Travis Herzog -- are gathered at the annual National Tropical Weather Conference in South Padre Island to talk about lessons learned and find new ways to protect and alert the public before a storm comes.

"They are exploring some new ways to communicate the risks from the wind and the storm surge. They were kind of gauging our thoughts and feedback on some new products they might be issuing, or refinements or enhancements to some of those products," Travis said about the conference. "They were just kind of tossing around among the community of professionals that are part of communicating those hazards, 'What do you think is going to be most useful to the people you serve?'"

Colorado State University researchers said they are also predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season with 17 named storms, nine total hurricanes, and four hurricanes at Category 3 or above. CSU released its first hurricane season forecast of the year on Thursday.

Researchers cite "above average subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea surface temperatures as a primary factor for their prediction of nine total hurricanes this year," according to a press release.

CSU said uncertainty remains about what phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) we will be in during the peak of hurricane season from August to October. Researchers said the odds of El Niño -- a recurring climate pattern that tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean and into the tropical Atlantic -- are low at 13%, per the latest NOAA outlook.

The absence of El Niño conditions is generally associated with hurricane-conducive upper-level wind conditions across the tropical Atlantic, according to CSU. So, the combination of no El Niño conditions plus above-average Atlantic temperatures means it could be an above-normal season.

The CSU researchers will issue updates to their forecast on June 11, July 9, and Aug. 6.

On Eyewitness News at 4, 5, and 6 p.m. Thursday, Travis will interview CSU's lead researcher, Dr. Phil Klotzbach, about why he thinks certain parts of the Atlantic basin are favored more than others. Travis will also discuss a new tool to help you assess your home's resiliency to natural disasters.