What are the swing state paths to 270 electoral votes for Harris, Trump

Election Day is here and former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are still in a tight race to cross the 270 electoral college threshold based on recent polling. But, which states are swing states for 2024?

Given the data, there are a few likely scenarios where each candidate can win the Electoral College votes and the presidency.

Assuming the polls accurately reflect the final results in the states, Trump would win in Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona and win the election with 287 electoral votes.

SEE ALSO: 538's final forecasts for the 2024 election

The former president's lead in those states is no more than 2.4 percentage points, well within any major poll's margin of error, according to 538 data.

If the polls understate Harris' lead, she could earn exactly 270 votes by winning one electoral vote in Nebraska, as well as all of the votes in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, if she wins those states.

If polls are understating Trump's lead, he could have the advantage by winning Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, giving him 268 electoral votes. Winning Pennsylvania would put him over the 270 limit in that scenario.

Through Monday, Nov. 4, 83 million Americans had already cast their ballots in the 2024 election. On Election Day, millions more will join them.

The early voting data has shown that the majority of early voters are women, a fact that the Harris campaign and Democrats have been touting.

However, the data also shows that 41% of the early voters are registered Democrats, versus 39% of registered Republicans. In the same period in 2020, 45% of early voters were registered Democrats and 36% were Republicans, according to the data.