Your chance of rain is going up this weekend

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- The wet weather pattern we've been talking about for days is almost upon us.

Most of Saturday will be like the last few days: Hot, dry, and breezy, but it all changes Saturday evening. That's when we expect a line of thunderstorms forming along a cool front to begin pushing into Southeast Texas. This line of thunderstorms may not reach Houston until the early morning hours of Sunday. There is a small chance the storms could produce severe wind gusts over 60 mph and quarter-size hail. Expect them to make a lot of noise as they produce frequent lightning strikes.



What can we expect for Sunday?
Sunday's weather will depend on how the first round of storms evolves Saturday night. The most likely scenario at this time is that the line of storms pushes through before sunrise Sunday and stabilizes the atmosphere for most of the day. Then we will have to wait for the atmosphere to warm up and recharge in the afternoon before any thunderstorms can redevelop. Regardless, temperatures will start off around 70 and only warm into the mid 80s.

How much rain could we get?
At this time we expect the initial round of storms Saturday night to produce 1" or less, but even more rain is on the way Tuesday and Wednesday when an upper level storm and a stronger cool front blow through. 1-3" of rain will be fairly common all across Southeast Texas from Sunday through Wednesday of next week. Totals will be on the low end of that range in our coastal counties and could exceed that range north of Houston.

Does this mean we might avoid the Saharan dust cloud?

The impacts of the dust will very likely be limited because of the front and rain. Monday is the day we'd likely experience the most impacts from this surge of Saharan dust, but it should be quickly washed out of the atmosphere by Tuesday's widespread rains. You can find more information on the dust cloud and get a full tropical update at abc13.com/tropicalupdate.


SEE RELATED STORY: WEATHER U: WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HEAT STROKE AND HEAT EXHAUSTION?

RADAR MAPS:

Southeast Texas
Houston

Harris County
Galveston County
Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties
Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties
Brazoria/Matagorda Counties