Astros still have plenty of MLB games left to bounce back despite 7-19 start

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- It's been an awful opening month for the Astros. But it's early, and there's plenty of baseball left, right? Yes, but that doesn't mean the Astros, a team that's played in seven straight American League Championship Series, will be able to play their way to the postseason.

The Astros have lost 19 of the 26 games they've played this season. After beginning the season with an 86% chance to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, those postseason odds have dropped to 43% following this putrid start.

The Astros will likely have to win 89 games to get into the playoffs in 2024. How did we peg that number?

Last season, the Astros' 90 wins earned them the American League West division title. The third and final Wild Card playoff team in the AL had 89 regular season wins a year ago.

So if 89 wins is the benchmark, the 'Stros need to go 82-54 the rest of the way in 2024. That's a winning percentage of .603 in their final 136 games.

Doable? Yes. Likely? No.

If you take a look at the club's last three seasons, you see how difficult it is to play .600 baseball.

The Astros' combined winning percentage from 2021 to 2023 is .599. A reminder, those three seasons ended one game shy of three straight trips to the World Series. So, after a 7-19 start, they'll have to play better baseball than the team has played the last three years in order for the 2024 Astros to have a chance at the postseason.

It's not over for the Astros, but it's not "early" either.

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