ABC13 Weather Watch tonight, rounds of scattered storms expected through the holiday weekend

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today through Memorial Day, but timing out each round of rain more than 24 hours in advance will remain a challenge in this pattern driven by an active jet stream.

After this morning's "bonus rain," we should be mostly rain-free the rest of the daytime. That complex of storms stabilized the atmosphere and will prevent us from getting as hot as originally expected. That said there's still a 30% chance for a few showers or thunderstorms to pop up around the evening drive time as temperatures still climb into the mid 80s.

Later on Tuesday evening a cold front will begin to approach the region from North Texas with a line of storms developing along it. These storms will push ahead of the front and begin to track from north to south across the region beginning around 6 to 7 p.m. for College Station, Huntsville and Livingston and then moving into Houston between 10 p.m. and Midnight. Severe wind gusts over 60 mph are possible along the leading edge of the thunderstorms. Hail and street flooding are also possible in the heaviest storms. Rain will continue off and on through much of the night, tapering off just before or during the Wednesday morning commute. The good news for our Wednesday plans is that the rain chances looks to be significantly lower once the rain clears out. The atmosphere will be somewhat stable and rain-cooled during the day on Wednesday, which has us lowering our chance for redeveloping storms down to 40%.

How do rain chances look for the rest of the week?

Multiple jet stream disturbances are expected to bring more rounds of rain Thursday through Memorial Day. At this time we have rain chances at 60% Thursday, 70% Friday, 40% Saturday, 60% Sunday, and 40% for Memorial Day. Because these jet stream disturbances can be a little tricky to time this far out, adjustments to these rain chances are likely, so it's wise to stay weather aware this week as you finalize your plans for the holiday weekend ahead.

What weather should we prepare for Memorial Day weekend?

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible every day, so make sure that if you have outdoor plans you also have a place to run for cover should you cross paths with a heavy thunderstorm. When it is not raining, it will be warm and humid. We have highs in the low-to-mid 80s and lows in the low 70s all three days. There is a chance an upper-low will spin up over Central Texas and stall out for the weekend, and if that happens we will need to raise rain chances even more and rain totals will go higher.

How much rain are we talking for this week?

We now expect 3-6" of rain to be fairly common with over 9" possible in spots. Remember that these totals are spread out over several days, so it should be a manageable rainfall for the most part. However, each passing round of showers and storms will increase the risk of street and creek flooding. The bayous could also be running high all week long, but no bayou flooding is anticipated at this time.

13 ALERT RADAR MAPS:
Southeast Texas
Houston
Harris County
Galveston County
Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties
Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties
Brazoria/Matagorda Counties

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