Tropical downpours return, ABC13 Weather Watch Monday and Tuesday

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Our weather pattern is in the process of changing from "mostly dry and hot", to "stormy and steamy", and today is the pivot day when that change begins. An influx in tropical moisture and a weak front dropping in from the north will combine to bring the potential for torrential downpours and flash flooding to parts of Southeast Texas.

We're starting with a few showers this morning moving in from the gulf before more scattered showers and storms develop in the early afternoon. Some of these could produce locally heavy rain, thunder and lighting, especially around the city during the first local World Cup game. Lightning is a big concern with many outdoor events happening around town, so just remember when thunder roars, go indoors! Otherwise, it's going to be another steamy day with temperatures in the mid-upper 80s, unless you see a passing downpour that briefly cools you off.

What's the latest on the heavy rain coming in to start the week?

The reason we have you on Weather Watch for Monday and Tuesday is because of the threat for street and urban flooding with high tropical moisture moving in. This, paired with a cool front from the north, could lead to several rounds of heavy thunderstorms pushing through Southeast Texas. And while the main concern with be street flooding, flash flooding cannot be ruled out depending on when and where the heaviest showers and storms track. Rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches are possible with these showers and storms that form Monday and Tuesday.

What's does the rest of the week look like?

By Tuesday this week cool front will be nearby southeast Texas and there's now an increasing chance this front could stall across the Gulf Coast midweek. We're also keeping an eye on other pockets of high tropical moisture that will be swirling around the region too. That said, we've started to increase rain chance to 40-60% Wednesday through Friday this next week. While the rain doesn't appear to be as widespread each day, any more rain on top of the heavier accumulations we pick up Monday and Tuesday could lead to a daily risk for street and area flooding for the rest of the week. The continued rainy pattern will also keep temperatures slightly below normal with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 80s. Factor in the high humidity though and we'll still have a feels-like temperatures near the triple digits.

What are you tracking in the tropics?

The National Hurricane Center has given the tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm. That's the moisture that surges in here this weekend and early next week. For the latest on what's happening in the tropics, head to our Tropical Update page for our daily tropical weather discussion and forecast.

13 ALERT RADAR MAPS:
Southeast Texas
Houston
Harris County
Galveston County
Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties
Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties
Brazoria/Matagorda Counties

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