Computer models can lead to hurricane hype on internet

We are now entering what is usually the busiest part of hurricane season. Only two named storms have developed so far this year and that's not unusual. The third hurricane doesn't usually develop until September 9. But if history is any indication of what's ahead, we'll be tracking several tropical waves over the next six weeks.

Thanks to the internet, everyone can look at the same computer models we use in the ABC13 Weather Center. And that means anyone can grab a scary screenshot and post it online to generate retweets, likes and page views.

On Tuesday, for example, one of the long-range forecast models woke up and suddenly showed a hurricane tracking toward Houston at the end of next week. And almost immediately posts went up on Twitter and Facebook warning that a possible hurricane "could enter the Gulf of Mexico." One tweet from a local government agency went as far as drawing an arrow from the middle of the Atlantic Ocean right toward Houston.

Three runs of the GFS forecast model show different output for next Friday. Images from WeatherBell.

Truth is, the same model showed no development six hours earlier. And a later run showed the storm moving toward New Orleans. A collection of model runs called "Ensembles" showed the storm tracking toward Florida. Another long range model showed absolutely no development at all.

Do we need to watch for possible development in the tropics? Of course! As I constantly remind people, we live along the coast of a warm body of water; hurricanes happen here. We ALWAYS need to prepare. Not every disturbance in the tropics will be a direct threat to the Houston-Galveston area. Furthermore, forecast models are often wrong, especially beyond the first 72 hours.

Trust us. We'll let you know when you need to worry.