Republicans clinch Senate control with key flips

Republicans are projected to clinch control of the Senate after flipping at least two key states and successfully protecting their incumbents.

Republican Gov. Jim Justice took the seat vacated by Sen. Joe Manchin, the West Virginia independent who caucuses with Democrats. And businessman Bernie Moreno, the Ohio GOP Senate nominee, unseated three-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Florida Republican Sen. Rick Scott, and Texas GOP Sen. Ted Cruz two lawmakers in red-leaning states who were Democrats' best pickoff opportunities, are also projected to win reelection, while Nebraska GOP Sen. Deb Fischer was projected to beat an independent challenger.

With Democrats currently holding a 51-49 majority in the Senate, these wins will now at least deliver a 51-seat majority for Republicans, barring any upsets. Republicans also have a prime opportunity to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in deep-red Montana, though the results of that race have not yet been projected by ABC News.

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Maintaining control of the Senate was always going to be a daunting task for Democrats, who entered the 2024 election cycle with a brutal map.

Democrats were defending seats in Montana and Ohio, two red states, as well as a slate of purple states, including Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The GOP-held seats in Florida and Texas were their best flip opportunities, though Democratic nominees there faced headwinds due to the lean of the states and former President Donald Trump's strength there.

It remains to be seen precisely how big Republicans' margin will be -- none of the purple state races have yet been called. But Republicans were feeling bullish heading into the early morning hours Wednesday.

"Look, today starts a new wave. You know, we talked about wanting a red wave. I think what we have tonight is a red, white and blue wave in this country," Moreno proclaimed in his victory speech.

While widely expected in Washington, Republicans' success marks a vindication of the GOP's strategy heading into the 2024 election cycle.

Still smarting from a disappointing 2022 midterm cycle that saw Democrats defy the odds and expand their Senate majority by one seat, Republicans this time around were heavily involved in several Senate primaries, trying to elevate candidates they viewed as the most electable (they did not, notably, play in Ohio).

On the other hand, the results are a severe disappointment for Democrats, who had appeared optimistic in the race's home stretch.

Texas was online, they had insisted, and Florida remained attainable, if a reach. And independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska was giving Fischer a run for her money.

Cruz and Scott ultimately coasted, and while Osborn did end up running a competitive race, he couldn't withstand the national headwinds in a state where Trump romped.

The wins mark a return to power for a GOP that was locked out of Senate control for four years.

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Republicans lost the majority in early 2021 as a result of two painful Georgia Senate runoffs, losses that Republicans in Washington largely blamed Trump for after his repeated claims of election fraud in the state that caused distrust of the election system among Republicans in the state. And though the party was projected to perform well in the 2022 midterms, they instead lost a seat in Pennsylvania, taking Democrats' majority from 50-50 to 51-49.

Republicans will seize the chamber at a time when longtime GOP Senate Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky is stepping down from his role leading the conference (he'll still serve in the Senate). Republicans will take a vote next week to name a replacement, with the fight largely centered around South Dakota Sen. John Thune and Texas Sen. John Cornyn. Scott is also running, though he is viewed as a longshot.

Should Trump win another term in the Oval Office, a Republican Senate will be key to approving judicial and administration nominees, though the 60-vote filibuster remains a potential obstacle in passing legislation, possibly forcing cooperation with Democrats on must-pass bills like on government funding and elevating the voices of Republican moderates like Sens. Susan Collins, Maine, and Lisa Murkowski, Alaska.

"Tonight Republicans retook the Senate Majority and held every single incumbent, which is great news for the American people. A Republican majority will work to secure the border, bring down prices, and help confirm President Trump's nominees. We still have a number of competitive races we are watching across the country that remain to be called," said Sen. Steve Daines, Mont., the chair of Senate Republicans' campaign arm.

Democrats are likely to swiftly go on offense heading into the 2026 midterms, targeting seats in Maine and North Carolina, though they'll also have to play defense in Georgia and Michigan.