Cold rain Wednesday, arctic cold front brings hard freeze and snow chance next week

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- A cold rain arrives on Wednesday, but an arctic cold front arriving this weekend now has us on Weather Watch next Monday (MLK Day) through Wednesday for the possibility of a hard freeze and ice or snow.

First let's tackle this Wednesday. The weather will be just like Tuesday, except add rain. Those chilly showers will keep our temperatures in a narrow range, and it will feel like it's in the 40s most of the day. Rain totals will generally measure less than 1/4" of an inch, but it could rain for several hours. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, especially near the coast.

When will the arctic front arrive and how will it impact our weekend?

The arctic front looks to arrive on Saturday morning. Temperatures will peak in the low 60s and could actually fall through the 50s during the day. Much colder air will arrive Saturday night, and it now looks like the freeze line will enter Southeast Texas on Sunday morning, pulling up just north of Houston. Sunshine on Sunday will warm temperatures out of the 30s and into the 40s. There is a 20% chance of rain Saturday morning as the cold front arrives, then the rest of the weekend will be dry.

What can runners and spectators expect for the Chevron Houston Marathon on Sunday?

It's going to be a cold one! At this time we expect the start of the race to feature temperatures in the mid 30s along with a north wind up to 25 mph pushing the "feels like" temps into the lower 20s. We expect it to be dry with sunshine breaking through to warm temperatures into the 40s during the race.

What's the coldest it will get with this arctic front?

Unfortunately a hard, pipe-bursting freeze is on the table because this air is coming all the way from Siberia. At this time we are expect low temperatures to bottom out in the mid 20s for Houston Monday through Wednesday mornings, but it could be several degrees colder, especially if we get ice or snow. Temperatures could easily drop into the teens for a morning or two if we get a blanket of ice or snow. Those extreme temperatures are not currently in our forecast, but it is possible.

When could we get ice or snow, and how much is possible?

We still have low confidence in the details of how moisture may overlap with the cold air, but the window for that occur opens up late on MLK Day, peaks on Tuesday, and winds down on Wednesday. Computer models are currently being aggressive with snow and ice chances over Southeast Texas, but we are taking a more conservative stance right now and saying there is just a 30% chance of sleet or snow showers. However, if the computer models are correct this far in advance, over half a foot of snow could occur. That is not currently in our forecast, but we want you to be aware of some of the extreme possibilities on the table.

13 ALERT RADAR MAPS:
Southeast Texas
Houston
Harris County
Galveston County
Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties
Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties
Brazoria/Matagorda Counties

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