Betting tips for Saturday's wild-card games: Odds, analysis, picks and trends

The NFL playoffs get underway Saturday with a pair of AFC wild-card matchups.

The first game features the fifth-seeded Los Angeles Chargers visiting the AFC South champion and fourth-seeded Houston Texans.

The second game will showcase MVP contender Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens hosting the AFC North rival Pittsburgh Steelers.

We break down both games and offer lines, props, picks, trends and more to help you prepare for any betting opportunities.

Saturday's wild-card doubleheader kicks off with the Chargers (11-6, 13-4 ATS) visiting the Texans (10-7, 7-10 ATS).

The Chargers (30-1 to win the Super Bowl) won their past three regular-season games, including the final two on the road. The Texans (75-1 to win the Super Bowl) dropped two of their final three games but are coming off a win in their regular-season finale.

Los Angeles goes into the matchup as 3-point favorites.

Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS/Paramount+.

Game lines

Matchup predictor (by ESPN Analytics): Chargers 52.8% chance to win

Player props

Passing

Rushing

Receiving

Ben Solak's pick

Chargers -3

The Texans are limping into the playoffs. Houston is 5-6 after a hot 5-1 start and lost Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to injury. The Texans' offensive line continues to surrender pressure at one of the highest rates in football, and the team's defense feasts on bad offenses while struggling against playoff opponents.

The Chargers should be able to neutralize some of Houston's pass rush with heavy personnel and under center play-action, while, defensively, Jesse Minter should scheme circles around Bobby Slowik. The Texans were always going to be a fade in the postseason, and against a sharp coaching staff like the Chargers, I'm willing to fade Houston aggressively.

Betting trends and more

Courtesy ESPN Research

• Home underdogs in wild-card games are 20-9-1 ATS all time with a 16-14 outright record. Last year, both home underdogs won outright (Tampa Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Texans +2.5 vs. Cleveland Browns).


• No team had a better record against the spread this season than the Chargers. The Chargers are 13-4 ATS, 11-2 ATS as favorites and 6-1 ATS as road favorites. They have covered five straight road games and are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games.


• It's the third time the Chargers are road favorites in a playoff game (2022 at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1982 at Miami Dolphins). The Chargers lost both games.


• Eleven of the Texans' 17 games this season went under the total, tied with the New York Giants for the highest under rate in the NFL. Unders were 7-1 in Houston home games this season.


• Since 2022, Justin Herbert is 11-5 ATS as a road favorite.


• The Chargers are 7-2 ATS all time against the Texans.


• The Texans are 13-4 ATS in the first half this season, tied for the best record in the NFL. The Chargers are 12-4-1 ATS in the first half, the third-best record.


• Texans first-quarter overs are 11-5-1 ATS, tied for the best mark in the NFL.

The Ravens (12-5, 10-7 ATS) enter Saturday's game as a near double-digit favorite at home against the Steelers (10-7, 11-6 ATS).

Baltimore ended the regular season with four straight wins, while the Steelers dropped their final four.

The Ravens are tied with the Buffalo Bills as the third choice to win the Super Bowl, trailing only the Detroit Lions (+300) and Kansas City Chiefs (+350). Pittsburgh is at the bottom of the pack at 75-1.

The teams split the season series, with the Steelers edging the Ravens 18-16 in mid-November. Baltimore took the most recent matchup 34-17 in Week 16.

Saturday night's kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on Prime Video.

Game lines

Spread:9.5 (Opened Ravens -8.5)