Expect August to be toasty with more triple-digit weather after July's record-warm heat

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- For a second year in a row, this July will end up being one of the warmest on record in Houston.

Without including the temperature data from July 31, the average temperature experienced this month was 87.7 degrees and ranked as the second warmest on record for the month of July in Houston.

In fact, it's just behind last July, which had an average temperature of 88 degrees, two record-warm years for the month, where 100-degree afternoons and steamy mornings contributed both years.

Specifically for 2023, Houston will end up with seven 100-degree days for the month and 11 80-degree mornings. Those data points are critical to understanding why this July was so hot, each of which is well above average and not normal for Houston.

This next heat wave for the end of July will continue into August. Based on climatology plus monthly outlooks, here's what August could look like after another record-warm month this summer.

RELATED: Houston woke up to 80-degree morning Wednesday when July averages in the mid 70s

First, let's start with temperatures.

With yet another heat wave to start the month and a pattern that will likely keep that heat ridge overhead, we expect August to be pretty toasty once again with well above-average temperatures.

This could mean afternoon highs in the upper 90s for much of the month, even 100s at times.

Morning lows could be impacted, too, so ABC13 will be keeping an eye on the record books as the month rolls on.

This week could even be one of the hottest starts to August on record, with afternoon high temperatures forecasted to be above 100 degrees from the first through the fifth.

RELATED: July has been so blistering hot, scientists already calculate that it's the warmest month on record

Not only is it expected to be hot, but dry too.

So area drought conditions could gradually get worse over the course of the month. As of now, it's not expected to reach the extent of the 2011 drought.

Though areas already with a rainfall deficit and drought conditions could progressively dip from the dry or moderate drought to the severe drought category by month's end if there's no significant change to wetter weather.

Specifically, it would take between six to 12, even upwards of 15 inches of rain, to dwell in the current drought conditions across southeast Texas.

But some positive news related to these recurring heat ridges.

Typically when a heat ridge is overhead, the position of the jet stream hinders tropical development locally.

Looking at the top 10 warmest Augusts on record, only one had a tropical system come through the region that August. It was 1957 with tropical storm Bertha.

Keep in mind that it's not a guarantee the tropics will be quiet in general, but at least locally, it could be another quiet month if this heat dome persists throughout the month.

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