Equal Hispanic representation not likely among Houston's next City Council, experts say

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- There will be nearly 60 people vying for 16 different seats on the Houston City Council in November after the deadline to file for candidacy passed on Monday.

Hispanic and Latino residents make up nearly 45% of the city's population, and advocates have been pushing for adequate representation on the council for years. But experts don't think that's going to happen in this upcoming election.

Professor Mark Jones, who teaches political science at Rice University, predicts that there may be only two Hispanic and Latino candidates elected this year to single-seat districts and one from an at-large district.

Although that's a higher number than the current administration, Jones said for the past eight years, there's only been one council member, Robert Gallegos, representing the city's Hispanic and Latino communities.

"That 45% is a proportion that increases modestly with every passing year. By the end of the decade, it'll probably approach 50%. If we were going to have proportionate representation, we'd see seven to eight Latinos on council," Jones said.

Data provided to ABC13 by the City of Houston shows that six out of 11 districts in the approved redistricting map that will go into effect in January will be majority Hispanic and Latino. However, Dr. Sergio Lira with Greater Houston LULAC believes the representation on council will still be low. He explained why.

"What's important is to look at the eligible voters of Latinos in those districts. For example, I may have 100 Latinos in this district. But out of those 100, only 20% are eligible voters, and of those 20%, maybe 5-8% actually come out and vote. So that percentage is small," Lira said.

He added that people have become reluctant to come out and vote because the government is not responsive or reflective of them.

"Possibly in about eight years, when the children of immigrants register to vote once they're 18, that's when I feel like there will be a larger citizen voting population bloc and substantial representation in institutions of government in Houston," Lira said.

READ MORE: Leaders worry redrawn Houston maps could threaten Hispanic, Latino representation at city hall

That's why LULAC's national office said it filed a federal lawsuit against the City of Houston back in December to eliminate the five at-large positions and change the entire council to 16 single-seat districts.

RELATED: LULAC announces lawsuit against Houston City Council due to lack of Hispanic representation

Jones said that it's been 24 years since a Latina was elected to an at-large position. He believes that changing the format of Houston's city council could result in better representation

"When you're drawing 11 single-member districts, it's going to be larger districts and harder-to-draw districts where Latinos represent a majority of the voters. If, however, you're drawing 16 single-member districts, then it becomes easier to draw smaller, more compact districts where the Latino electorate is larger," Jones said.

LULAC's federal lawsuit has not had its day in court yet, and even if it is successful, Jones explained it will likely face more delays with enforcement due to an appeal.

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