Some models take Caribbean disturbance into Gulf


Much of its rain is going to be moving over the Yucatan Peninsula the next couple of days. It will be hard for it to develop during that time.

Once it moves over the Gulf this weekend, warm water and lower wind shear may allow it to develop tropically. It's still too early to say which direction it will move but our more reliable computer models take it into either Mexico or Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Erin has formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. We have plenty of time to watch it.

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