Sunshine returns Thursday, arctic front could bring winter storm to Houston next week
HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- We're in for a beautiful winter day Thursday, but our Weather Watch remains next Monday (MLK Day) through Wednesday for the possibility of a hard freeze and a winter storm.
The rainy weather system that made for a dreary Wednesday is clearing out overnight, which allows temperatures to fall into the upper 30s. We'll still have some high clouds soaring overhead during the day, but an abundance of sunshine will warm us back above 60 degrees in the afternoon. If the sky stays mostly clear Thursday night, a frost is possible for Friday morning.
When will the arctic front arrive and how will it impact our weekend?
The arctic front looks to arrive on Saturday morning, possibly before sunrise. Temperatures will fall into the 40s and 50s behind the front, then warm back toward 60 with the Saturday afternoon sunshine. There is a 20% chance of rain Saturday morning as the cold front arrives, then the rest of the weekend will be dry. Much colder air will arrive Saturday night, and that's when we expect the freeze line to first enter Southeast Texas, pulling up just north of Houston Sunday morning. Sunshine on Sunday will warm temperatures out of the 30s and into the 40s.
What can runners and spectators expect for the Chevron Houston Marathon on Sunday?
It's going to be a cold one! At this time we expect the start of the race to feature temperatures in the mid 30s along with a north wind up to 25 mph pushing the "feels like" temps into the lower 20s. We expect it to be dry with sunshine warming temperatures into the 40s during the race.
What's the coldest it will get with this arctic front?
Unfortunately a hard, pipe-bursting freeze is on the table because this air is coming all the way from Siberia. At this time we are expect low temperatures to bottom out in the mid 20s for Houston Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, but it could drop into the teens on Wednesday morning if we get a lot of ice or snow on Tuesday. Those extreme temperatures are not currently in our forecast, but it is possible. You also need to be aware that when temperatures drop below freezing on Monday night, they may not get back above freezing until Wednesday afternoon, giving us nearly 48 straight hours of freezing temperatures.
When could we get ice or snow, and how much is possible?
We still have low confidence in the details of how moisture may overlap with the cold air, but the window for that occur opens up late on MLK Day, peaks on Tuesday, and winds down on Wednesday. Computer models are currently being aggressive with snow and ice chances over Southeast Texas, but we are taking a more conservative stance right now and saying there is a 40% chance of freezing rain, sleet, or snow showers. However, if the computer models are correct this far in advance, over half a foot of snow could occur. On the other hand, if we get freezing rain instead, over half an inch of ice accretion is possible, which would likely lead to power outages and cripple travel. Neither of those scenarios are currently in our forecast, but we want you to be aware of some of the extreme possibilities on the table just in case.
When will we be done with the freezing temperatures?
It's possible the freezing weather could last until the weekend. In fact, we are eying the possibility of a second wave of low pressure arriving next Thursday or Friday that could bring another round of frozen precipitation. Stay looped into the forecast this week as we continue to refine the details!
13 ALERT RADAR MAPS:
Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties
Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties
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