Small chance for big storms late Saturday as triple-digit heat continues

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Houston once again caught a fever Friday afternoon with a high of 101 at Bush Airport. With even hotter weather expected Saturday, all of Southeast Texas remains under a Heat Advisory until 7 p.m. Saturday. Heat index values will peak between 105 to 112 degrees in the late afternoon, increasing the threat for heat-related illness. There is also a slim chance for big storms late Saturday, especially north of I-10.

How hot will it get this weekend?

Unfortunately, it looks like this weekend could bring the hottest weather of the entire heat wave. For now we have high temperatures peaking at 102 Saturday and 103 Sunday. The heat index could also be dangerously high in the afternoon with it feeling over 110 degrees at times.

Is there any rain in the forecast?

Yes, but the chances are slim. Frist up we've got a 20% chance of rain late Saturday. Because it will be so hot, if a thunderstorm develops, it could produce wind gusts over 50 mph and possibly turn severe. Next week we have a 30% chance of rain on Thursday and Friday as the heat dome slides back to the west and moisture levels rise. If we gain confidence that the heat dome will slide fairly far to our west, then our rain chances will go higher.

What should I know about the potential for a flash drought?

First, it's important to understand what a flash drought is. This is what we call it when a drought suddenly develops over 1 or 2 weeks of hot, dry weather instead of the usual 1 or 2 months it takes a more typical drought to develop. We are already seeing "abnormally dry" conditions spread across Southeast Texas, and soon moderate drought may return. This means if you want to keep drought-sensitive vegetation alive during this heat wave, you will need to provide the water. You might also consider providing low amounts of water to your home's foundation to help stabilize the soil moisture and prevent movement in the ground that supports your foundation. This is especially important if your soil is mostly composed of clay.

Are there any signs that this hot, dry pattern will break any time soon?

We see a glimmer of hope that the pattern could budge some toward the end of next week, which is why we have an "optimistic" high of "just" 100 and a 30% chance of rain in the forecast by Thursday. Friday looks even better with a high of 98 and a 30% chance of rain. This weather change will be caused by a weak front that could bring more widespread rainfall. For now we are keeping our expectations low until we gain more confidence on the pattern change.

What's happening in the tropics?

Tropical Storm Moke in the Central Pacific could threaten Hawaii with more rain and rough surf this weekend. Meanwhile in the Atlantic, we are watching some tropical waves and Saharan dust emerging from Africa. For a more in-depth discussion on what's happening in the tropics, visit our Daily Tropical Update page.

13 ALERT RADAR MAPS:
Southeast Texas
Houston
Harris County
Galveston County
Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties
Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties
Brazoria/Matagorda Counties

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