What does being in first place on June 1 mean?

BySarah Langs ESPN logo
Friday, June 1, 2018

As baseball enters June, the Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Braves, Brewers and Rockies might feel like they're sitting pretty, holding the division lead as the season enters the summer months.

But the longevity of that divisional prowess is not a given.

Since 1996, the first full season with at least one wild card, 76 of 132 division winners (58 percent) held at least a share of the division lead entering June 1.

Historical trends

Does it feel as if there are more good teams and more bad teams this year than in recent memory?

There are two teams with winning percentages above .650 entering June 1 this season (Red Sox .684 and Yankees .673). That's the most such teams since 2007, when there also were two.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, it's the second time the Red Sox and Yankees both have had .650 or better winning percentages entering June in the same season. It also happened in 2002, when the Red Sox had a .706 winning percentage and the Yankees .655. The Yankees finished that year 103-58 (.640), the best record in the majors. The Red Sox were 93-69 (.574) and missed the playoffs.

There are five teams with winning percentages below .400. That's the most entering June 1 since 2010, when there also were five.

What it means to be in first place

Since 1996, 12 of 22 World Series winners led their division entering June 1. The 2014 Giants and 2011 Cardinals had a share of their respective division's lead at that point, then did not win the division but did win the World Series.

All six division winners have held a share of first place on June 1 just once since 1996: in 1998. That season, the Yankees, Indians, Rangers, Braves, Astros and Padres each held outright leads entering June 1.

In that span, only once has just a single team held a division lead from June 1 through to the end of the season: in 2014, when only the Tigers did it.

The Orioles are 21.5 games behind the first-place Red Sox in the AL East. Only three times has a team been 21.5 or more games out of first place entering June 1 in the divisional era (i.e., since 1969).

Did we have more strikeouts than hits again?

We didn't finish with more strikeouts than hits in May, but the difference between hits and strikeouts was still the second smallest ever, behind the negative differential this April.

There has never been a season with more strikeouts than hits, and there have been 281 more strikeouts than hits overall this season.

The strikeouts

There have been 14,306 strikeouts in the majors this season. We're on pace for 41,633. That would be 1,529 more than in any other season in MLB history. The strikeout record has been set each year since 2008 -- that's each of the past 10 seasons.

Rangers hitters are on pace for 1,573 K's this season. The most strikeouts by a team in a season is 1,571 by the 2017 Brewers. As you can see, the Rangers are on pace to break that record.

There already have been three 20-strikeout games by teams in the majors this season. That's halfway to last season's 20-K team game total of six, which was the most such games in MLB history -- and the previous record was just four.

The hits we are seeing: home runs

What does this mean? In part, that batters have continued their home-run-or-bust approach that we've seen growing over the past few years.

There have been 1,888 homers this season. We're on pace for 5,494. That would be fifth most in MLB history, but remember: More home runs get hit as the weather warms up.

Through May last year, we were on pace for 5,915 HRs, which would've been most in MLB history. We ended up with the most -- but at 6,105. The pace picked up in the summer months.

This year, the average MLB launch angle is 11.8 degrees. That would be the highest average launch angle across the majors since Statcast began tracking launch angle in 2015. In each of the prior three seasons, the MLB-wide HR total has risen, as has the MLB average launch angle.