The easy part for the Houston Texans is done, as they've clinched a playoff spot last week.
Unfortunately, the Texans no longer fully control their own destiny, as they can finish as either the AFC's top or bottom seed in the playoffs.
Here's every scenario possible and the likelihood of it happening.
To clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC and homefield advantage throughout playoffs:
ESPN's Football Power Index gives this a 0.3 percent chance of happening, but the Texans would need:
- A win versus the Jacksonville Jaguars
- A New England Patriots loss or tie
- A Kansas City Chiefs loss
- A Los Angeles Chargers loss
- And a 'strength of victory' tiebreaker versus the Chiefs, which is the combined win-loss-tie percentage of all the opponents that a team has defeated.
To clinch the No. 2 seed and a first round bye:
The FPI gives this a 10 percent change of happening, and there's more than one way to make it happen. Houston needs:
- A win and a Patriots loss or tie
- Or, a Texans tie and a Patriots loss
- Or, a Texans win combined with a Chiefs loss, a Chargers loss, and the Chargers winning a strength of victory tiebreaker over the Chiefs
- Or, a Texans loss, combined with a Patriots loss, a Titans-Colts tie, a Baltimore Ravens win, and the Texans winning the strength of victory tiebreaker over the Ravens.
To clinch the No. 3 seed and the AFC South title:
One of the easiest scenarios with a 67 percent chance of happening. The Texans just need:
- A win against the Jaguars
- Or, a loss to the Jaguars, with the Colts and Titans ending in a tie.
To clinch the No. 6 seed:
The FPI gives Houston a 23 percent chance to finish last in the AFC playoff picture. In order for that to happen, the Texans need:
- A loss to the Jaguars, and either the Colts or Titans win their Sunday night showdown.
Every Houston Texans playoff scenario heading into Week 17