Hype Trap Bet: How motivation impacts NFL games in Week 18
It's fun to jump on the bandwagon. To board the hype train as it leaves the station, heading for greener pastures. Sometimes those pastures include some extra green in your pocket. Other times, it's a one-way ticket to disappointment along with the rest of the public.
In the sports betting world, it's essential to know the difference between a smart bet that the public is on, and a line that has taken on so much public steam that it's moved past the point of being good value. That's what I'm setting out to do for you this season -- help you spot those differences and think critically when you see something on TV, hear it again on a podcast, and then see it all over your social media feeds the rest of the week.
The hype
I have ADHD.
Or at least, I'm pretty sure I do. I've spent the better part of the past year working with my therapist to try and find out why my brain works the way it does, and we've narrowed it down to ADHD. It's not the way it's portrayed in TV and movies for jokes, like the dog in "Up" being distracted by a squirrel. But the laundry list of items on my to-do list never gets checked off in the proper order.
My brain is constantly torn in different directions at the same time, remembering things from this morning, two days ago, or even last month that I wanted to accomplish or need to take care of. It makes me a lot less efficient, and I'm left with projects taking longer than expected, some long-term goals unfulfilled and general stress added to day-to-day tasks as I'm constantly reminded, at the worst possible times, of all the other things that I still want to do.
I say all this because it's a new year. We're four days into 2024 and I am, like many of you, trying to sort out my priorities and goals for the year. I'd like to start working out more and eating healthier, and I'd like to think that I can keep myself motivated enough to follow through on those goals.
But motivation is a fickle mistress. You can want to be healthier. You can want to be more successful at your job, you can want to achieve your goals. But that doesn't automatically mean it's going to happen. Week 18 of the NFL regular season is the perfect example of this. Come take a trip down memory lane for a minute.
Two years ago, the Indianapolis Colts were sitting pretty at 9-6, needing a win in either of their last two games to make the playoffs. A home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders set up a win-and-in scenario against the worst team in the league, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence's rookie season was an abject disaster, half-coached by Urban Meyer as the team stumbled to a 2-14 record entering the final week. Jacksonville had no motivation to play -- in fact, one could argue it had motivation to lose to ensure the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft.
Indianapolis was a 14-point favorite and -1000 on the moneyline (we've had only three teams with shorter moneyline odds this entire season). Then Carson Wentz fumbled, threw an interception, and almost threw a second pick as the Jaguars not only won, but won by 15. It was just the second time in 25 years that a two-touchdown underdog won by at least two touchdowns.
The Colts were certainly motivated to win. But motivation can't be enough. That same season, the Detroit Lions entered Week 18 a half-game behind the Jaguars for the worst record in the league. Jacksonville had locked up the win before the Lions game was over, and Detroit was trailing late in the fourth quarter. Lose, and they'd get the No. 1 pick. Elementary, my dear Watson. Instead, Jared Goff led two scoring drives in the final two minutes to pull off a comeback.
The Houston Texans should have been motivated to lose last season in Week 18 for the top pick as well, but Houston led a last-minute comeback over the Colts. This scenario happens far more often than we realize. Do you think the Buffalo Bills weren't motivated to win last week against the New England Patriots, needing to force four turnovers to win by only six points? Do we think the Philadelphia Eagles weren't motivated to beat the Arizona Cardinals last week? That loss likely puts them on the road the entire postseason rather than hosting two playoff games themselves.
Football is a funny game sometimes, and Week 18 is no different. Don't get cocky! Now let's look at the weekend slate.
Don't get trapped
Let's start off simple. Double-digit favorites are 4-7 ATS in the final game of the season over the past three seasons. Favorites of at least five points are 13-17 ATS.
It makes sense though, right? Do we really think that sportsbooks are unaware of team motivation entering Week 18? If there's one thing I've tried to impart in this column, it's that sportsbooks are at least as smart as we are as bettors. You might know a certain team well or be aware of a certain angle that the books aren't factoring in yet, but you can just about guarantee that the most popular story of the week is already being included in the lines you're looking at.
So we really shouldn't see the percent of public plays that we're seeing on some of these games. Here are some of the ticket and money splits on some of the games where one team is motivated and the other team has relatively nothing to play for.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a win-and-in for the NFC South title. It's about as clear a motivation as you could have: no help needed, no other scenarios, win and in, lose and out. The Carolina Panthers have clinched the worst record in the NFL (but don't even get their own No. 1 pick) and have nothing to play for. Hence 91% of tickets are on Tampa to cover.
But when these teams played last month, Tampa won by only 3 at home and Carolina was about 20 yards from FG range with a couple of minutes left. In fact, the Panthers at home this season are actually 2-5 with three one-score losses, compared to on the road where they went 0-9 with six losses by double digits. I'm not saying the Panthers will cover, but I am saying they're likely closer to covering than 91% of bettors seem to think.
It's the same scenario for the Jaguars, who have a -23 point differential since their Week 9 bye and finally stopped a four-game losing streak last week. Lawrence is practicing again but is dealing with approximately 357 ailments and injures. Are we sure Mike Vrabel is going to wave the white flag in what might be Derrick Henry's last game in a Titans uniform?
The one ticket count I was encouraged by is the Pittsburgh Steelers (only 32% of bets at PIT -4). ESPN Analytics currently has this game chalked up as an 11-point Baltimore Ravens win (with all projected starters in). Baltimore likely rests some guys, but John Harbaugh is the king of getting his team to play all four quarters even when winning is meaningless. Winning 24 straight preseason games requires motivation and I expect Tyler Huntley & Co. to give the Steelers all they can handle. Nothing against Mason Rudolph, but the Ravens' defense is not the same as the Cincinnati Bengals or Seattle Seahawks defenses.
If there was one spread bet I'd make here, it would be on the Seahawks (-2.5) against the Cardinals. Seattle does also need help in the form of a Chicago Bears win in Green Bay, but they've played the third-toughest schedule according to ESPN Analytics and have won their easiest games. The Seahawks are 5-0 against teams under .500 and I think they're capable of dispatching Arizona this weekend, especially since the spread is kept under a field goal.
The TL;DR of it all is this: we already know how volatile football games can be. We know even less about expectations in Week 18. I would stay away from betting solely based on motivational narratives and instead look at the play on the field. Besides, we've actually got a lot riding on these Week 18 games (including a couple of games highlighted below). It should be a fun finish to the regular season, so enjoy the chaos while you can.
The bets
Saturday 8:15 p.m. ET, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
C.J. Stroud over 257.5 Pass yds (-115 on ESPN BET)
Stroud has hit the over on this line in 8 of his 14 games, but take a look at the six games he missed the mark:
New York Jets: He got hurt against a tough pass defense.
Baltimore Ravens: NFL debut against an elite pass defense.
Tennessee Titans: Won by 23, needed only 22 pass yards in the game's final 25 minutes (was well on pace at halftime).
Carolina Panthers/Atlanta Falcons/New Orleans Saints: Three of the bottom 10 defenses in attempts, completions, yards and yards/attempt allowed.
The Colts elevate play volume on both sides of the ball and don't have a great pass defense. They allowed Stroud to go for 384 and two scores in their first meeting and the likely Offensive Rookie of the Year has put up six 300-yard games. The win-or-go-home nature of this game likely has him slinging the rock for 60 minutes straight, even in a win.
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
What a finale to the season. The Bills need a win for the division and if the Jaguars and Steelers hold serve, a loss could eliminate Buffalo from the playoffs entirely despite being ESPN Analytics' top-rated team entering Week 18.
Josh Allen anytime TD (-115 on ESPN BET)
I'll be honest, I don't understand this line being listed as a 50-50 prop. Allen has scored a rushing TD in 12-of-16 games (75%), including five of six since the team turned to Joe Brady as offensive coordinator. He has cashed this prop in five straight, with three games with multiple touchdowns in that span.
Early in the season, the Bills tried to rein in Allen's rushing attempts. His highest total through six games was six carries and he averaged 3.7 attempts per game. It's not shocking he scored only on the ground in half those games. Since then, he's doubled his attempts to 7.4 per game and has a rushing score in all but one game, a 26-point blowout of the Jets where Buffalo ran only three plays inside the 10.
Since Week 7, Allen ranks second in the NFL in carries inside the 5-yard line. Yes, that includes running backs. No, I'm not joking. He has 80% of the team's rushing TD and 63% of the teams carries inside the 5 since Week 7. He is the team's goal-line back that also puts himself in harm's way and takes punishing hits. In a winner-take-all game, there's no way he doesn't get a couple cracks at the end zone.
