Fantasy football: How to value Texans' WR trio of Diggs, Collins, Dell in drafts
Grit. Moxie. Determination.
Anyone who has ever survived high school P.E. has likely read at least one of these words off of a laminated poster hung above a stack of dusty plyo boxes. Chances are, as a sports fan, you've also employed a collection of the above adjectives to describe a coach, a team and/or a player. If you did it while referencing the 2023 Texans, you weren't alone... or wrong.
The Houston Texans' epic turnaround was the embodiment of nearly every positive sports trope spewed over airwaves and between couch potatoes. A first-year head coach taking a 3-13 squad to the second round of the postseason with a rookie QB at the helm? Hollywood couldn't write a better script (well, they could, but it wouldn't get greenlit, not in this economy).
Having unlocked so much talent in such a small amount of time, the Texans appear to be on a rocket ship headed toward boundless success. Understandably, fantasy enthusiasts are eager to hitch a ride. But every year presents new challenges. Defenses will have had an entire offseason to study Bobby Slowick's offense. Houston's schedule will be markedly more difficult (going from a top-five SOS in 2023 to a bottom-five SOS in 2024). And there are two very recognizable faces in this newest of places.
While no one knows for sure exactly how the season will shake out (the Texans are +105 to win the AFC South), this appears to be an environment filthy with fantasy goodness. Yet, untapping that potential and finding value within it is less obvious. The distribution of targets remains particularly muddy. So, let's dig in and get realistic about the investment.
C.J. Stroud, QB
Demonstrating poise and accuracy well beyond his years, Stroud averaged the second-most passing yards per game (273.9) and led the league in TD:INT ratio (23:5). The Ohio State product excelled at pushing the ball downfield, managing 8.2 air yards per attempt (with 22.8% of his attempts exceeding 15 yards). Although he can't be considered a "dual-threat" QB, the 22-year-old did score three rushing TDs (QB12) while registering 2.31 rushing fantasy points per game (QB14). Stroud's (often heroic) efforts culminated in a boon for virtual investors, as he recorded the eighth-most PPR fantasy points per game (18.3).
While the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year thrived as an efficient passer, he wasn't particularly prolific in the red area (23 passing TDs, QB13). The additions of Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon, however, figure to boost Stroud's scoring potential in 2024. Any advancements in Stroud's maturation process could be offset by an increased degree of difficulty presented by the team's schedule. It's therefore reasonable to expect his throwing stats to remain (slightly better than) static. However, the aforementioned uptick in TDs should boost his overall profile, making the Ohio State product a top-10 fantasy option at the position. Consider drafting him before Dak Prescott but after Anthony Richardson.
Joe Mixon, RB
Mixon averaged 18 touches per game (14-15 carries and 2-3 receptions) over his last two seasons in Cincinnati. His efficiency metrics as a rusher have never popped (he has managed no more than 4.1 YPC since 2019). He has, however, shone as a receiver, recording a catch rate above 80% for four consecutive outings. The 28-year-old figures to resume his role as a three-down producer in Houston, particularly with Devin Singletary off to New York and Dameon Pierce as the lone threat to meaningful touches.
Pierce flashed as a rookie but woefully struggled in his sophomore effort, posting 2.9 YPC in 2023. The Florida product averaged 15.6 carries per game from Weeks 1-8 before spraining his ankle and losing the starting gig to Singletary, who registered 16.7 attempts per contest from Weeks 9-18. The extent of Pierce's involvement remains to be seen, and DeMeco Ryans has mentioned Mixon and Pierce working as a "1-2 punch," but 18 touches per game (15 totes and 3 grabs) feels like a wholly reasonable expectation for the former Bengal. He's on the RB1/RB2 bubble for fantasy purposes.
Nico Collins, WR
On the precipice of glory since his days in Ann Arbor, the planets (finally) aligned for Collins in his third NFL campaign. Effectively deployed by Slowik and expertly relied upon by Stroud, Collins was able to showcase his acumen as a downfield threat.
Utilizing an imposing frame (6-foot-4, 215 pounds), solid ball-tracking skills (11.9 YPT) and physicality after the catch (549 YAC, WR6), the 25-year-old emerged as Houston's alpha wideout. An additional layer of Collins' skill appeared via his efficiency, as he registered an impressive 3.3 yards per route run (WR2). Despite missing two (nearly three) games, Collins posted a 80-1,297-8 stat line and ended last year as fantasy's WR12 overall (17.4 FPTS/gm, WR7).
Collins' talent is evident, but will his targets fluctuate given Diggs' arrival? Not by much. The former Wolverine averaged 7.4 looks per contest when sharing the field with a healthy Tank Dell and 8.2 targets per regular season outing when Dell was sidelined in 2023. That's a minimal shift, which indicates Collins' role relative to the rest of the corps. He is the team's X-receiver and figures to remain Houston's most omnipresent pass-catcher, doggedly manning the outside. Projected to clear 100 looks, 70 grabs and 1,000 yards for his second consecutive season, Collins commands high-end WR2 fantasy appeal in the WR15-18 range.
Stefon Diggs, WR
There appear to be two prevailing thoughts regarding Diggs: He has either lost a step or that his production suffered due to last year's change in playcallers. The truth is probably somewhere in between. What we do know is that Diggs' numbers dropped significantly after Ken Dorsey was fired, that Diggs was not pleased with this change, and that he restructured his contract in order to play for Houston in 2024 (allowing him to become a free agent in 2025).
It's also clear that Diggs is a commanding and fluid route runner who has delighted fantasy managers for the bulk of his nine-year career. He has surpassed 1,000 yards for six consecutive outings and logged top-10 positional numbers for four straight campaigns (and top-20 FF WR stats since 2017). His elite production existed sans an asterisk until Week 11 of 2023. Diggs was the WR5 overall in PPR fantasy points (20.2 per game, WR11) over the first 10 weeks of last year. He scored seven of his eight TDs over that time, which isn't shocking considering he drew just two of a total of nine end zone looks after Weeks 11-18. His role in the offense was reduced across the board, and his numbers suffered as a result.
Some may argue that Joe Brady made the change, choosing to focus on the ground game instead of the team's aerial efforts, because Diggs looked washed. The numbers don't support that, though. Diggs averaged 2.17 yards per route run (WR15), racked up 399 yards after contact and managed 151 receiving yards after first contact (WR2) over the first two and a half months of the season. Those numbers might be down slightly from his 2022 stats, but there's no denying that No. 1 was efficient and effective after the catch under Dorsey.
Entering his age-31 season, Diggs is likely past his prime. But he is still a star. And he figures to remain one in 2024. The former Bill, whose aDOT has hovered between 10 and 11 yards since 2020, is expected to work as the Texans' short-area target, manning the slot and rotating with Dell on the outside. His YPR won't be monstrous (probably around 12), but his number of catches should be plentiful.
Diggs' reputation precedes him, meaning the Texans know that they're dealing with a player who expects a high number of opportunities. The organization brought in a seasoned vet to elevate Stroud. It's a solid plan for Houston and for fantasy managers, as long as they don't expect Buffalo caliber numbers from Diggs. He is still, however, good for 80+ grabs and 1,000+ yards, making him a solid WR2 for fantasy purposes.
Tank Dell, WR
Last year, Dell proved that good things do indeed come in small packages. The diminutive pass-catcher quickly climbed the Texans' depth chart, emerging as the team's No. 2 WR after Houston's Week 7 bye. Dell collected five total TDs, went over 100 receiving yards on two separate occasions and averaged over 20 PPR fantasy points per game from Weeks 8-12 before breaking his leg in Week 13. The 24-year-old (who, as an innocent bystander, additionally sustained a gunshot wound this past April) was reportedly participating at OTAs without limitations and is expected to be a full participant at training camp.
While Dell recorded a slot share above 20%, he thrived as an outside deep threat, managing an aDOT of 14.3 (WR12) and nabbing six of seven total scores via the perimeter. A talent as versatile as he is explosive, Dell figures to round out the Texans' trio of receivers. Given the fragility that he demonstrated as a rookie and noting that, while healthy, he may be rusty to start the season, Dell's opportunities are likely to regress heading into his sophomore effort. With most managers focusing their efforts between Collins and Diggs (both of whom are being selected in the third round of 12-team exercises), Dell presents intriguing value in the sixth round of fantasy drafts. He's a solid WR3, brimming with (later-season) upside.
Dalton Schultz, TE
New team, same stat line. Schultz, once again, worked as a reliable outlet over the middle of the field, posting nearly identical numbers in 2023 to those he managed with Dallas in 2022. Averaging almost six targets, four catches and 42 receiving yards per game, Schultz gifted his investors with double-digit fantasy points in seven of 15 outings and ended his first year in Houston as FF's TE10 overall (10.0 FPTS/game).
While the Texans drafted Stroud's former college teammate Cade Stover in the fourth round of last April's draft, Schultz remains atop the team's collection of TEs. He signed a three-year, $36 million dollar extension in March, signaling Houston's commitment to the 28-year-old. Still, his target share (17.5% in 2023) should wane with Diggs joining the squad. Schultz presents as a high-floor fantasy option, available to managers who prefer to wait on the position until the double-digit rounds. He's the ESPN consensus TE15 heading into the fall.
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