Status of the 2025 hurricane season as we approach the climatological peak

Next week will mark the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, signaling a time when conditions best favor tropical development. And while Sept.10 is the climatological peak, the date only marks the midpoint of the traditionally active timeframe between late august to early October.

Yet, up until Sept.1st, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has been pretty calm for the United States. Only one storm made landfall, which was tropical storm Chantal back in early July. As for the Gulf, the one named storm so far this season has been Tropical Storm Barry. Compared to this time last year, four named storms had spun through the gulf by early September. Two of those were Beryl and Debby, both making landfall along the Gulf Coast. So, the perception of a "quiet" hurricane season is not wrong, it just needs some context.

The 2025 season is actually running ahead of schedule with six named storms so far. The average number by this time of year is only four. And while 5 of the 6 storms have only been tropical storms, Hurricane Erin strengthened to a Category 5 storm as it rapidly intensified near the Caribbean last month.

There are a couple reasons why the activity has been somewhat limited, though. First, there have been several Saharan dust events across the Atlantic Basin this season. And when tropical waves could have reached the Caribbean and Gulf, wind shear and other weather patterns prevented further development. As for four of the six storms that did form, including Erin, those stayed in the Atlantic and rode around the strong Bermuda High. Finally, there have been subtle influences from both a budding La Nina in the Pacific and unfavorable conditions from the Madden Jullian Oscillation that helped keep things quiet.

Looking ahead to September and October, this is when activity can really ramp up. Latest analysis shows conditions could favor development in the deep tropics, Caribbean and Gulf over the next three weeks. And if the 2024 season serves as any example, the number of storms that developed after September 1st was more than double the number of storms from the previous three months.

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