New hurricane season prediction shows chance of storms hitting Texas

Nick Natario Image
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Hurricane forecast shows probabilities of impacts in SE Texas
A new forecast is showing there's a much higher chance than before of a storm impacting southeast Texas this hurricane season.

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- An updated forecast shows not only could this hurricane season be active, but the possibility of storm impacts in southeast Texas is much higher than in the past.

Colorado State University not only predicts how many storms there could be, but the percentage of where they could go. One of those chances is the possibility of a named storm impacting an area.

According to the report, Texas has the fifth-highest possibility of named storm impacts, behind Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Georgia.

Across Texas, it's 80% - nearly 20% higher than the historical average.

Closer to home, Galveston County, Brazoria County, Chambers County, and Harris County all have a range of 45 to 51%, up by about 16%.

Statewide, the possibility of a hurricane impact is 54%, up 18% from the average. Across southeast Texas, it ranges from a 25% to 30% chance.

All of those figures are up by about 10% from the historical averages.

"A call for 11 hurricanes is the most we've ever had in a June prediction," CSU graduate research assistant Nick Mesa explained. "Some of the sea surface temperatures and the other metrics for the warmth in the Atlantic is the highest on record and what we normally see in the month of September."

Researchers say major hurricanes could be devastating. Statewide, the rate is 25%, which is nearly 10% higher than the historical average. In southeast Texas, it ranges from a 7 to 9% chance of happening, which is all above the average by three percent.

"Seeing those elevated numbers is certainly concerning," Mesa said. "One of the main things we like to do with this forecast in the month of June is that this gives you a nice lead time to help prepare. We like to stress it's better to be proactive than reactive."

While researchers were able to forecast estimates, they can't see exactly where a storm could hit. They say the best thing you can do is pay attention and have a plan and kit together in case a storm heads this way.

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