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SPORTS

Betting tips for Texans-Chiefs and Commanders-Lions: Odds, analysis, picks and trends

ByESPN

Friday, January 17, 2025 8:24PM

The NFL divisional round starts with a bang, as the No. 1 seeds in both the AFC and NFC will be in action Saturday.

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will begin their pursuit of a third straight Super Bowl championship against C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans to get the day underway.

The Detroit Lions, fresh off a bye after defeating the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18 to win the NFC North and clinch the conference's top seed, host rookie sensation Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders.

We break down both games and offer lines, props, picks, trends and more to help you prepare for any betting opportunities.

The NFL divisional round gets going Saturday with the two-time defending champion Chiefs (15-2, 7-10 ATS) hosting the Texans (11-7, 8-10 ATS after covering in the wild-card round) at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.

The AFC top-seeded Chiefs had a bye last week, while the Texans laid waste to the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round. These teams have met twice previously in the playoffs, with the Chiefs winning both matchups.

Kansas City has been involved in several close calls this season, playing in 10 games decided by seven points or less, winning each of them. The Chiefs are 7-0 outright but 0-7 ATS when laying at least six points this season. They opened as 7.5-point favorites for Saturday's matchup and now are 8-point favorites.

The Texans, who won the AFC South for a second consecutive season with quarterback C.J. Stroud at the helm, intercepted Justin Herbert four times in the wild-card round on the way to a convincing 32-12 victory.

The Texans are looking for back-to-back playoff wins for the first time, while the Chiefs begin their quest to become the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls.

Saturday's action gets going at 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+.

Game lines

Matchup predictor (by ESPN analytics):63.6% chance to win (by 4.6)

Player props

Passing

Rushing

Receiving

Andre Snellings' pick: Texans +8

The Chiefs play close games and win, but the games are typically competitive, defensive affairs. Only four of the Chiefs' 15 wins this season were by more than eight points. The combined record of the losing teams in those lopsided contests is 24-44. The Chiefs have not covered a spread this large all season; they are 7-0 outright but 0-7 against the spread when laying at least six points this season, per ESPN Research. They are also coming off a multiweek layoff, with a bye in the wild-card round after sitting their starters in Week 18.

The Texans looked as sharp as they've looked all season against the Chargers last Saturday. The Chiefs beat the Texans by eight points when they met in Week 16 and should be favored to win, but the spread for me is too high for a Chiefs team that seems to love winning on the last possession of almost every game.

Betting trends and more

Courtesy ESPN Research

Kansas City is seeking its eighth straight playoff win, which would be third-longest streak in NFL history behind the 2001-05 New England Patriots (10) and 1961-67 Green Bay Packers (9).

The Chiefs are a win away from a seventh straight conference championship appearance (would be the second-longest streak since the 1970 merger, trailing only the 2011-18 Chiefs, who went to eight straight).

Patrick Mahomes is seeking his 16th playoff win as starting QB, which would tie Joe Montana for second most in NFL history, trailing Tom Brady with 35.

Mahomes is 6-0 in the divisional round (already the most wins without a loss by a starting QB in any playoff round in NFL history).

Mahomes is 4-1 against the Texans, including the playoffs. In those games, he has averaged over 280 pass yards per game and has thrown 14 TDs to just one interception.

The Chiefs are 2-0 all time vs. the Texans in playoffs (won 2015 wild-card matchup 30-0 and 2019 divisional round game 51-31 after trailing 24-0 in the second quarter.

The Texans are 6-7 all time in the playoffs and have never won consecutive playoff games (0-5 in the divisional round). They are the only franchise that has never made a conference championship since the round was created in 1970.

The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point favorites (currently 8) but have not covered a spread this large all season. They are 7-0 outright but 0-7 against the spread when laying at least six points this season. That is the longest such streak of winning but not covering as a 6-point favorite in the Super Bowl era, just ahead of the 2020 Chiefs and 2006-09 Miami Dolphins (six each).

The Chiefs are 15-2 this season but are just 7-10 against the spread. The only other playoff team with a losing record against the spread is their opponent, the Texans, who are 8-10 ATS after covering in the wild-card round.

The Chiefs' eight victories this season without covering the spread are tied for the most in a single season in the Super Bowl Era.

Saturday's second divisional round game features an NFC matchup between a Lions team currently favored to win the Super Bowl (at +275) versus a Commanders team (30-1) that went from 4-13 and a last-place finish in the NFC East to 12-5 and advancing to the divisional round in Year 1 of the Dan Quinn-Jayden Daniels era.

Last season, the Lions came up one game short of the Super Bowl, falling 34-31 to theSan Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship game. Meanwhile, the Commanders ended their 2023 season with eight straight losses.

How things can change.

The Commanders (13-5, 12-6 ATS) finished this campaign with five straight wins to close out the regular season and are coming off a wild-card win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That victory over the Buccaneers was Washington's sixth win this season in which the game-winning score came in the final 10 seconds of the fourth quarter or in overtime.

Detroit (15-2, 12-5 ATS) lost two games all season (to the Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills) by a combined 10 points on the way to a second straight NFC North title. The Lions boast a prolific offense that led the NFL in scoring and outscored opponents by a league-high 222 points in the regular season. They are the biggest favorites of the weekend, laying 9.5 points against the Commanders.

Kickoff from Ford Field in Detroit is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.

Game lines

Matchup predictor (by ESPN analytics): Lions 73% chance to win (by 9)