Betting buzz: Underdogs look to rebound in NFL playoffs after shaky season

Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective.From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.

Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.

Jan. 11: NFL underdogs look to rebound after shaky regular season

Doug Greenberg: At 195-77 (.717) straight up and 145-127 (.533) against the spread, favorites in the 2024 NFL regular season broke the record for most SU and ATS wins, surpassing the totals set in 2005 (188-65 SU and 142-103-8 ATS), but falling short of the best-ever winning percentages (.743 and .580, respectively).

While it was an undoubtedly great season for favorites -- and, in turn, a bad one for the sportsbooks -- history suggests that underdogs could be due for a resurgence in the playoffs, particularly in the first round.

Since 2017, underdogs are 24-12 against the spread and 16-20 outright in the wild-card round; for the entire playoffs, those numbers go to 52-33 ATS and 35-50 straight up over that time period. In 2005, a record regular season for favorites, underdogs went 2-2 ATS and SU in the first round.

Since 2020, when the league added a seventh team to each conference's playoff bracket, 'dogs are 13-11 ATS in the wild card round, but that's mostly dragged down by the 2021 postseason when only one underdog covered. Last year, underdogs went 4-2 ATS, with three teams -- the Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- all winning outright.

All three of those teams are back in the mix this postseason and, sure enough, two of them are underdogs again.

The Texans kick off the 2024 NFL playoffs Saturday as three-point home underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers, who were a league-best 13-4 ATS in the regular season, including 11-2 as favorites and 6-1 as road favorites. The Chargers have received comfortable backing on the tickets and handle across the sportsbook marketplace, with FanDuel reporting 10 times as many bets on L.A.'s spread compared to Houston's as "one of [its] most lopsided games of the weekend."

Saturday's other game features the Pittsburgh Steelers, who had been one of the most profitable underdogs early in the season by winning their first five underdog games outright, but fell off sharply by then losing four straight and failing to cover in three of them. Still, the public is giving Pittsburgh attention with a bevy of spread and moneyline tickets, but Lamar Jackson's red-hot Baltimore Ravens are receiving positive money splits at BetMGM.

Finally, all three of Sunday's matchups have seen the favorites gain steam, as the Buffalo Bills (-8 to -8.5), Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5 to -5) and Buccaneers (-2.5 to -3) increased their spreads in early action, per ESPN BET. Philly has gotten decently lopsided support against Green Bay, while the Denver Broncos and Washington Commanders have gotten some money love as underdogs at the major books.

Jan 10: AP All-Pro team flips MVP betting script

Greenberg:On Friday, the Associated Press released its All-Pro teams, with the Baltimore Ravens' Lamar Jacksonas the quarterback of the first team and the Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen headlining the second team. It's a significant development in the MVP race and its associated betting.

Following Week 18, Allen closed as the -250 favorite for the NFL's highest individual honor, with Jackson trailing behind at +185, according to ESPN BET odds. However, some sportsbooks, including ESPN BET, reopened the market later in the week with Allen showing -500 and Jackson sporting +350.

Immediately following the announcement of the All-Pro teams, DraftKings had Allen -450 and Jackson +320 before the market quickly came off the board. As of Friday afternoon, none of the major sportsbooks have re-posted odds for MVP.

Jackson's presence on the first-team is noteworthy because it's extremely rare for a player to be named a first-team All-Pro without also winning MVP. It's only happened twice since 1957, when NFL MVP was first awarded, according to ESPN Research. John Elway was the MVP and Joe Montana was first-team All-Pro in 1987, and Peyton Manning and Steve McNair were co-MVPs in 2003, but only Manning was first-team All-Pro.

Allen and Jackson were two of the most popular betting selections for MVP all season. Following Week 18, BetMGM reported Allen as its handle leader at 28.6%, while Jackson garnered 15.5% in second place.Detroit Lions signal caller Jared Goff accounted for the most tickets at 11.8% and is the sportsbook's biggest liability, but he's unlikely to win at 125-1.

ESPN BET said that Jackson accumulated the largest ticket share on the final day of the regular season with 21.9% of the bets. The 28-year-old also had the largest share of handle (40.7%) in the week preceding the season's end, but Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow had the most tickets (37.1%) over that span.

Jan. 9:Notre Dame has chance at history in CFP semifinals

David Purdum: In 2008, Floridalost toOle Missas 23-point favorites in an SEC contest that was followed by Tim Tebow's viral post-game speech. The Gators bounced back to win the national title that season, becoming the only eventual champion in the BCS/College Football Playoff era to lose as more than a three-touchdown favorite during the regular season.

Notre Damesuffered an even bigger upset this year, losing to Northern Illinoisas 28.5-point favorites in Week 2 of the 2024 regular season. The Fighting Irish's national championship odds drifted to as long as 100-1 after the loss to Northern Illinois and Notre Dame responded with 12 consecutive wins, reaching the College Football Playoff semifinals.

The Fighting Irish began Thursday as 1-point favorites overPenn Statein the Capital One Orange Bowl. The line had grown to as high as Notre Dame -2.5 early in the week, before coming back down to a consensus -1 in the hours leading up to kickoff.

Bookmaker John Murray of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas said "a lot of money" came in on the Irish last week, shortly after their win overGeorgia.

"They really didn't do much offensively in that game at all," Murray said. "I think we may be heading towards an all-Big Ten championship game."

The winner of Thursday night's contents will face thewinner of the Goodyear Cotton Bowl betweenOhio Stateand Texasin the national championship game on Jan. 20 in Atlanta.

The Buckeyes, who also suffered a big upset loss during the regular season, falling to Michigan as 20.5-point favorites, were a consensus 5.5-point favorite over Texas on Thursday.

Since 1998, only two teams have lost straight-up as 20-plus-point favorites in the regular season and gone on to win the national championship in the BCS/College Football Playoff era. In addition to 2008 Florida, 2016Clemsonlost toPittsburghas a 21-point favorite and won the national title.

Jan 5: Titans end season with all-time worst ATS record

David Purdum and Doug Greenberg: On Sunday, the Tennessee Titans finished their regular season with another loss, this time by a final score of 23-14 to the Houston Texans. Coming in as 2.5-point favorites, the Titans dropped to 2-15 (.118) against the spread, the worst ATS record in a season by any team in the Super Bowl era.

For first-year coach Brian Callahan, it's the worst start to a tenure for any head coach in the Super Bowl era, per ESPN Research. The previous ATS low point was held by the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who went 2-10-2 (.167) against the number in their first season as an NFL expansion team. Six other teams had previously gone 3-13 (.188) ATS.

"It's a weird situation," John Murray, vice president of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN. "The point spread is supposedly the great equalizer for a team no matter how good or bad they are. I think the Titans franchise is so irrelevant that nobody even noticed."

Including Sunday, Tennessee was a favorite six times throughout the campaign, but failed to cover the spread in that scenario even once, getting close in a three-point win over the New England Patriots as 3.5-point favorites in Week 9. The Titans' only two ATS wins of the season came in outright road victories as underdogs against the Miami Dolphins in Week 4 (+2.5) and the Texans in Week 12 (+7.5).

Assuming vigorish of -110 each game, a bettor fading Tennessee with $100 each week would be up $1,163.64 by season's end.

"Caesars had the Titans rated quite low, so their performance was not a real surprise," Caesars Sportsbook vice president of trading Craig Mucklow told ESPN. "However, as a sportsbook, we look for parity in the spread, and the Titans offered trend bettors good value throughout the year, even when we thought we had set the line at the extreme."

Bettors once again faded Tennessee en masse on Sunday, with 87.4% of handle backing Houston's spread at ESPN BET. The Texans also became the last team to hit the over on their season win total (9.5) with the victory.

The game also produced something of a silver lining for the Titans: With the loss and the New England Patriots' win over the Buffalo Bills, Tennessee now holds the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL draft.

Odds and ends

Opening lines for the NFL wild-card round (per ESPN BET)

• Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 (-115)


• Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (-115)


• Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills -8 (-110)


• Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 (-125) at Houston Texans


• Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens -8.5 (-110)

The Circa Sports Survivor Contest concluded Sunday with eight winners, who will evenly split the pot of $14,266,000, meaning each contestant will take home $1.78M. The contest began Week 18 with 18 entries, but lost over half of the pool with losses from the Atlanta Falcons (8) and Green Bay Packers (2).

The Chicago Bears defeated the Green Bay Packers outright after entering the contest at 10.5-point underdogs. It matched the largest upset win of the season and the franchise's largest since 2013 when it was +10.5 to Green Bay.

With the No. 1 seed in the AFC locked up, the Kansas City Chiefs sat their starters and closed as 11.5-point to the Denver Broncos, KC's largest underdog role since 2014. The Broncos, needing a win to make the playoffs, won big 38-0 in their first time favored over the Chiefs since 2017.