Growing number of young Black voters becoming more conservative than their parents, study shows

PRAIRIE VIEW, Texas (KTRK) -- Election Day is less than a month away and polls show the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will likely be very tight.

Some young Black voters told ABC13 they still haven't made up their minds.

"I'm actually still undecided. I'm going to wait until the voting window opens up and I'll make my official decision," said Raiven Charles, a senior at Prairie View A&M University who identifies as a progressive. "We're actually more engaged and politically intelligent than people think. We want to hear what policies will benefit us as college students."

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Results from past presidential elections show that young Black voters typically lean Democratic, and surveys show that, in November, that will likely remain the case.

However, there's a shifting pattern among the small percentage who plan to vote for Trump. According to the 2024 National Black Voter Project Longitudinal Study, there's a growing number of young Black voters who are becoming more conservative than their parents.

The survey shows that the highest percentage of Black conservatives, at 22.2%, are actually those between the ages of 18 to 29. The 30 to 44 age group makes up 18.9%, 45 to 64 are at 10.1%, and the oldest who are 65 and over come in at 4.3%.

Dr. William Hoston, who teaches political science at Prairie View A&M University, explained young Black voters are not following the generational space that their parents and grandparents once did.

"There was a time where if you were Black, you were told you had to vote Democrat. That trend has really dissolved in a lot of ways," said Hoston. "Even though Trump may not be experienced politically, he's saying some of the things they (young Black voters) want to hear related to the economy. Harris has only been in this race for three months and she's flip-flopped on some of her agenda items."

Javon Evans, who lives in Houston, said what ultimately sold him on the Republican party was his experience living in New York during the COVID-19 pandemic and what he believes is a declining economy under Biden.

"There was a lot of government overreach that I did not appreciate, and to this day, I believe was unconstitutional. I think it could've been handled better," said Evans. "I don't really see what the whole schtick is with the Democratic party anymore. For decades, they pandered to Black voters and said they were going to get us all these jobs. But I don't really know what they're doing for us anymore."

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Hoston predicts that the group that will ultimately decide the election will be white women. He thinks more than 60% of them will vote for Trump, which could skew the results in his favor.

"I think Harris will need more than the Black demographic to be victorious. She will need the Latino demographic, young voters, college-educated white men and women, and more to show up at the polls," said Hoston. "It's going to be a very close election. Every vote will matter."

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For Breanna McRoberts, who identifies as moderate, she said no matter the outcome, she'll be watching to see how well the winner lives up to the promises they've made on the campaign trail.

"I'm looking for actions to match words. I believe there has to be some work done. You can say what you want to do and what you plan to do. But if there's no action behind it, it's kind of just a thought," said McRoberts, a senior at Prairie View A&M University.

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