Eye on the Gulf: Tropical development possible early next week, heavy rains could impact Texas

Thursday, June 13, 2024 3:56PM
Here's what to know about the area in the tropics we're watching
We're watching an area in the tropics for possible development. Here's what to know.

June 13

Tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico has increased to 40% over the next 7 days. Regardless of development, heavy rains, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are looking like along Texas beaches. Because the low pressure has not yet developed, there is still some uncertainty on the exact impacts for Texas. For now, prepare for the possibility of torrential tropical downpours returning to Southeast Texas Monday through Wednesday of next week.

June 12 Evening Update

The odds of tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico have increased to 30% over the next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are looking like along Texas beaches. Because the low pressure has not yet developed, there is still some uncertainty on the exact impacts for Texas. For now, prepare for the possibility of torrential tropical downpours returning to Southeast Texas Monday through Wednesday of next week.

June 12

Monitoring two areas of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. Formation odds remain low for both. A broad area of low pressure near the Gulf coast of Florida is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This is system is expected to move off the Southeast coast later this week.

There is also an area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that needs to be watched for potential development. Regardless of development, deep tropical moisture could move into Texas after Father's Day, increasing our chances for heavy rainfall and gusty winds early next week.

June 11

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is expected to move northeast toward Florida during the next day or so and offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast later this week. Slow development is possible over the next 7 days, but the probability remains low at 20%. Regardless of development heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Florida during the next few days.

We are also monitoring the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next several days as it is possible a tropical low may try to spin up and that tropical moisture could move into Texas after Father's Day, increasing our chances for heavy rainfall.

June 10

No tropical development is expected in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basins over the next week. In the next 6-12 days we'll be watching for a tropical low to bring in deep tropical moisture into the Gulf, but as of now it's just a potential system that we are keeping an eye on. The average date of the first named storm in the Atlantic is June 20th.

June 9

No tropical development is expected over the next 7 days. We are keeping on our eyes on the potential for some broad low pressure to develop late next week in the gulf, which will spread deeper tropical moisture into Florida, but shouldn't impact our weather over the next week. Beyond that we'll monitor to see if any of that deeper tropical moisture makes it here into Southeast Texas as we move into the week after Father's Day.

June 8

There remains no immediate threat of any tropical troubles, with no development expected in the Atlantic Basin over the next 7 days. In the next 8-14 days we'll be watching for a tropical low to bring in deep tropical moisture into the Gulf, but as of now it's just a potential system that we are keeping an eye on.

June 7

In the short term (through this weekend and into next week), there are no tropical systems with no development expected.

In the longer-term (mid-to-late June) we are keeping an eye on the southern Gulf and western Caribbean for potential development.

June 6

The tropics remain quiet for now and tropical development is not expected through the weekend.

The Climate Prediction Center has highlighted an area over the western Caribbean, or southeast Gulf of Mexico for tropical development between June 12-15. Tropical development will be possible in this area due to low wind shear and record warm waters over the Caribbean and Gulf. We'll be watching it closely.

June 5

The Atlantic Basin remains quiet and no tropical formation is expected over the next 7 days.

June 4

No tropical development expected over the next 7 days as another dust cloud moves off the coast of Africa.

June 3

There are no tropical threats across the Gulf of Mexico, or across the Atlantic Basin for the next 7 days.

In the eastern Pacific, a weak area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions do not appear favorable for significant tropical development, and the system is expected to weaken during the next day or so.

June 2

Hurricane season is starting off on a quiet note. No development is expected in the Atlantic Basin over the next 7 days. With record warm waters and low wind-shear, it won't stay quiet for long.

June 1

June 1st marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season. There are no major threats across the Gulf of Mexico, or across the Atlantic Basin for the next 7 days. Widespread dust moving off the coast of Africa will also limit tropical development.

2024 Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued its highest-on record hurricane forecast for the 2024 hurricane season. But when it comes to life along the Texas Gulf Coast, ABC13 meteorologists explain exactly what Houston-area residents need to know to plan ahead, and protect their families.

All categories of storms are expected to exceed the typical number seen every year, National Weather Service forecasters announced Thursday in a news conference for the 2024 hurricane outlook.

NOAA scientists predict between 17 and 25 named storms, compared to an average of 14; between eight and 13 hurricanes, compared to an average of seven; and between four and seven major hurricanes, compared to an average of three.

RADAR MAPS:

Southeast Texas

Houston

Harris County

Galveston County

Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties

Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties

Brazoria/Matagorda Counties

During hurricane season, remain prepared and make sure you download our ABC13 Houston app!