NFL playoffs divisional round: Houston Texans to play Kansas City Chiefs in divisional-round matchup
HOUSTON, Texas -- Three wild-card games from the NFL playoffs are finished, and the divisional-round matchups for the AFC teams are officially set. The Baltimore Ravens will travel to play the Buffalo Bills next weekend, while the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Houston Texans.
To look ahead at those matchups, we asked our NFL Nation reporters to pick out one thing we learned about the teams they cover during the wild-card round. (For the Chiefs, who didn't play this week, we asked Adam Teicher to provide an injury update.) Seth Walder also explored how each team can win to advance to the conference championships, and we provided opening lines from ESPN BET.
AFC
(4) Houston Texans at (1) Kansas City Chiefs
Opening line: KC -8 (42.5)
Matchup background: The Chiefs and Texans faced off in Week 16, with Kansas City winning 27-19. The last playoff meeting between these two franchises was in the 2019 wild-card round, when the Chiefs erased a 24-0 second-quarter deficit to storm past Houston 51-31. Kansas City went on to win the Super Bowl that season. -- ESPN
Chiefs injury update: The Chiefs should have all of their starters and key role players on their active roster available for the divisional round. That includes defensive tackle Chris Jones, who hasn't played since Week 15 because of a strained calf muscle. Running back Isiah Pacheco and offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor have also recently missed time because of injuries but should be ready to roll. Starting cornerback Jaylen Watson, who has been on injured reserve since breaking an ankle in Week 7 against the 49ers, has also been practicing and could be activated. -- Adam Teicher
What we learned about the Texans in the wild-card round: After an up-and-down regular season, the Texans got stellar contributions from all three phases in their 32-12 win over the Chargers in the wild-card round. Quarterback C.J. Stroud threw for 282 yards and running back Joe Mixon rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown. The defense intercepted Justin Herbert four times, leading to the third-worst Total QBR of his career as a starter (13.0). Cornerback D'Angelo Ross also blocked a punt and returned a blocked extra-point attempt for a score. -- DJ Bien-Aime
Why the Chiefs will win: Well, the biggest reason the Chiefs will win is that they're playing the Texans. Houston, despite advancing to the divisional round, has not been a consistently effective offensive team since losing Stefon Diggs (knee) in Week 8. From Week 9 on, the Texans rank 27th in EPA per play on offense -- including negative EPA per play on both dropbacks and designed runs against the Chargers.
Of course, the Chiefs bring more than their fair share of strengths, too, starting with quarterback Patrick Mahomes but not ending with him. Earlier this season, one could make the argument the Chiefs were short on playmaking receivers. But today it's a different story: Kansas City traded for DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown returned from injury and Xavier Worthy has shown growth late in the season. Plus, it's at least possible tight end Travis Kelce has simply been saving his strength for the postseason. Add that offense to a defense that still boasts some elite talents in Jones and Trent McDuffie, and Kansas City is a formidable opponent for any playoff team, let alone the Texans. -- Walder
Why the Texans will win: Their pass rush. As ugly as the Texans' offense was for most of the season -- and frankly, it wasn't great in their win over the Chargers -- their pass rush always gives them a chance. Danielle Hunter led the NFL with a 26% pass rush win rate in the regular season, and he and Will Anderson Jr. were both over 25% in that category Saturday. (Denico Autry was at 21% and delivered a sack, too.) Those edge rushers against the Chiefs' tackles represents one category in which the Texans -- who are deserved underdogs -- will have a clear advantage over Kansas City.
The back end of the defense matters, too. Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. had a great regular season and snagged two picks against Los Angeles. And don't sleep on CB Kamari Lassiter, who didn't allow a single reception as the nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and also had a pick. -- Walder
