TX is Democrats' best chance at flipping Senate seat, retaining control, 538 Politics forecast shows

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- 538 Politics has released its forecast of the U.S. Senate for this year's election.

While the race here between incumbent Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Colin Allred is neck and neck, the forecast for which party will control the upper chamber is a lot clearer. 538's Nathaniel Rakich joined Eyewitness News to break down what the data shows.

538 takes a look at polling, economic, and demographic data to explore what election results could be.

Rakich said their forecast shows Republicans are much more likely to win control of the upper chamber. In simulations, they won control 87 times out of 100. Democrats won control 13 times out of 100.

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Their forecast also shows that Democrats are most likely to pick up the Texas Senate seat out of all the seats they're trying to flip.

However, Cruz is still the favorite. Their simulations showed him winning 82 times out of 100. Allred won the seat 18 times out of 100.

Rakich said these forecasts aren't predictions and should be viewed as a tool to help voters understand what's likely to happen, not what will happen.

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