What Trump's VP pick could mean for 2028

Former President Donald Trump is expected to announce his vice presidential pick any day now (although the smart money is on sometime next week). The three front-runners for the job, according to various reports, are North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Sens. Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance.

And the stakes for these men are seemingly high. With Trump constitutionally limited to serving just one more term as president, if he wins, his vice president would be the expected front-runner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. We know that Burgum and Rubio, at least, have presidential ambitions - they've both run for the gig in the past.

However, if they think being Trump's running mate will stamp their ticket to the White House, they should think again. Vice presidential nominees actually don't have a very strong record of becoming president - so in general, people may be overrating the importance of Trump's pick.

From 1972 (when the era of modern presidential primaries began) to 2016, 18 people appeared on the ballot as the Democratic or Republican vice presidential candidate.* Only two later became president: George H.W. Bush and Joe Biden. Of course, there is still a chance that some of the more recent VP nominees, like Sen. Tim Kaine or former Vice President Mike Pence, could eventually reach the Oval Office - but even if that unlikely scenario comes to pass, that's still not a high batting average.

Of course, the biggest X factor here is the winner of this election. Trump's running mate will have better odds of becoming president someday if he becomes vice president first. Of the 10 vice presidents who served between 1972 and 2020,** seven later ran for president, and five won their party's nomination. But, of course, only Bush and Biden emerged victorious in the general election.