Betting buzz: Bettors fade Ohio State, CFP title game spread moves toward Notre Dame

ByESPN

Tuesday, January 14, 2025 2:58PM

Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective.From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.

Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.

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Jan. 14: Bettors fade Ohio State as CFP title game spread moves toward Notre Dame

David Purdum: The line on the College Football Playoff National Championship game dropped early this week, with sportsbooks reporting sharp money on underdog Notre Dame.

On Jan. 10, Ohio State opened as a consensus 9.5-point favorite over the Fighting Irish in one of the largest spreads in a championship game during the BCS/CFP era. Some bettors thought the line was too big and came in early on Notre Dame, causing sportsbooks to drop the line to Ohio State -8.

"There wasn't any news that drove this movement, but rather just sharp wagering that shot down this spread from 9.5 to 8.5," Joey Feazel of Caesars Sportsbook told ESPN. "We have seen a steady stream of action on Notre Dame thus far, which was surprising given that we had seen an onslaught of Ohio State money both on games and futures since their win against Tennessee."

John Murray, vice president of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said his shop received a bet from a "very respected customer" on Notre Dame +9.5 (-105) on Sunday.

"The entire market moved down at the same time," Murray said.

The line dropped to as low as Ohio State -7.5 on Monday, but has since settled back at a consensus -8. Feazel said sharp bettors also bet against the Buckeyes ahead of the semifinal matchup with Texas.

"The sharps believe Ohio State's numbers are overinflated in the market," Feazel said. "I expect to see this line possibly come down slightly closer to 7."

Jan. 12:Bills open as favorites over Ravens in battle of 'best two teams in NFL'

David Purdum: Only three NFL playoff games in the Super Bowl era closed with a line of pick 'em in ESPN's database. Next week's divisional round game in Buffalo has a chance to be the fourth.

The Buffalo Bills began the week as 1-point home favorites over the Baltimore Ravens, but there has been plenty of volatility.The Bills opened as high as -2, but the line dropped to as low as pick 'em, before settling back at -1 on Sunday night. On Monday morning, the line moved to Ravens -1 at ESPN BET, but other books still have the Bills as the favorite.

The last playoff game with a closing moneyline of pick 'em was the 2019 wild-card matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles, who lost as 1-point favorites.

"We took an initial wager of $21,000 on Ravens +2 out of Louisiana, but action will be limited until all of the games are finished today," Joey Feazel, football oddsmaker for Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN on Sunday.

Some oddsmakers have the Ravens power-rated ahead of the Bills. Baltimore, at +475, has shorter Super Bowl odds than Buffalo (+500) at ESPN BET.

"We think they are the two best teams in the NFL," John Murray, vice president of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said. "Baltimore is power-rated higher, and that is why they are only getting one point on the road. Buffalo is a place we do give a home-field advantage in."

The Bills have been favored in 42 consecutive home games, the longest active streak in the NFL, according to ESPN research. They have not been a home underdog since a Week 17 game against the Miami Dolphins in 2020.

The Kansas City Chiefs opened as 7.5-point favorites over the Houston Texans in the other AFC divisional playoff game, but the line quickly moved to Chiefs -8.5

Home teams were 4-0 straight-up and against the spread ahead of the Sunday prime time game between the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.