What tropical forecast factors could impact the potential wave in the Gulf this week

A swirling area of showers and storms currently off the east coast of Florida on Monday has a low chance of developing into a potential tropical system in the northern Gulf this week. No matter what though, there is a high likelihood for heavy, tropical rains across the Gulf Coast this week and into the weekend.

With that in mind, ABC13 Meteorologist Elyse Smith broke down a few of the different environmental conditions and factors that could play a role in this area of high tropical moisture developing into a storm or not.

First, let's talk about wind shear and the jet stream over the northern Gulf. This is why this region of showers and storms is expected to traverse the Gulf from east to west in the first place. The jet stream along with two regions of high pressure will push this wave of tropical moisture westward across the Gulf this week.

If those steering winds aloft are stronger, that will help limit possible tropical development. If the jet stream winds are weaker, which is what some computer models are signaling late Monday, that would mean there's more favorable conditions for a potential tropical low to develop later this week. Specifically, the latest data hints at a window of opportunity Wednesday of this week if conditions are right.

READ MORE: Tropical Update: Monitoring the Gulf for potential development later this week

Now, let's mention that bathwater that is the Gulf waters right now. Sea surface temperatures are trending warmer than normal and were in the low-upper 80s across the Gulf Coast Monday afternoon.

These warmer than normal waters have been a primary driver for tropical development and intensification within the past few hurricane seasons, and even earlier this year.

Tropical Storm Chantal was able to quickly organize from a tropical wave to a tropical depression and then a storm even in less than ideal environmental conditions thanks to, in part, the warm waters it had off the East Coast. And as of Monday afternoon, this region of swirling showers and storms has a low chance of developing over the next seven days once it enters the Gulf.

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