Experts warn of rising recession risks: Texas economy could feel the pinch

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- As economists continue to monitor signs of a potential national slowdown, experts warn consumers could begin feeling the impact of ongoing trade tensions in a matter of weeks.

While consumer spending remains relatively strong and the labor market continues to show resilience, some economic forecasts suggest that these pillars may not hold up much longer.

Dr. Dietrich Vollrath, a professor of economics at the University of Houston, joined Eyewitness News live on Tuesday to break down what a recession could mean for Texans.

Vollrath said there are several key indicators economists are watching closely: a reduction in international shipments, hiring freezes, and a sharp drop in the creation of new jobs.

For Texas, the stakes are high. The state's economy depends heavily on imports and exports, especially in the energy, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors. That makes it particularly vulnerable to the ripple effects of increased tariffs and global market uncertainty.

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From the oil industry to small businesses, the tariff war is causing financial uncertainty for many across southeast Texas.

Vollrath was cautious about sharing advice on what people should do with their finances, but he did say there are ways to prepare for possible supply disruptions.

"If you were thinking of how to prepare for what's coming, one of those things is to think about things you might want to stock up on a little," he said. "A good example would be school supplies. Those things are not going to keep arriving as long as these tariffs are in place. You may get to the end of the summer and start scrambling for what kids need before they head back."

When asked about the likelihood of avoiding a recession altogether, Vollrath was blunt: unless the current tariff policy changes, a downturn is almost inevitable.

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