The World Cup is half over, with 54 of 104 matches complete. And the drama is just getting started
It's halftime at the World Cup. Take a break, everyone.
Wednesday marked the midpoint of the 104-match tournament - technically, just past the midpoint, with 54 matches now in the books and 50 remaining before a World Cup champion is crowned in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on July 19.
The U.S. has reached the Round of 32, which shouldn't be surprising. Mexico and Canada, the other host nations for this biggest World Cup in history, are also through to the knockout stage. And the stars are positively shining: Argentina's Lionel Messi has five goals to kick-start what he hopes is a run toward a second consecutive World Cup title. France's Kylian Mbappé has four, as do Norway's Erling Haaland and Brazil's Vinicius Júnior.
Stadiums are mostly filled; FIFA is touting record attendance. And there have been some feel-good stories, most notably the tale of Cape Verde goalie Vozinha and how his mother was able to come to this World Cup.
"The best is yet to come," FIFA President Gianni Infantino told SNTV earlier this week.
In other words, the second half of this tournament - just like the second half of matches - is when things might get really good.
Who's in
Through Wednesday's games, 13 teams have clinched spots in the Round of 32.
Mexico won Group A, Switzerland won Group B, Brazil won Group C, the U.S. won Group D, Germany won Group E and Argentina won Group J.
France, Norway, Canada, Morocco, Colombia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and South Africa also are assured of moving into the knockout stage.
"I know how it feels, but it's very difficult to explain how it feels," South Africa coach Hugo Broos said after his team clinched its first-ever appearance in the knockout stage. "I'm very happy for the guys."
Who's out
A handful of teams already know they'll be among the 16 that don't survive the group stage and reach the Round of 32.
The Czech Republic, Haiti, Turkey, Tunisia, Jordan, Qatar and Panama are certain to not advance.
Still hoping
With 13 teams into the knockout round and seven eliminated, that leaves 28 teams for 19 remaining spots in the Round of 32.
Some key matches left:
- Australia-Paraguay is a win-and-you're-in game.
- A winner of Japan-Sweden would be assured a Round of 32 spot, as would a winner of Austria-Algeria.
- Tiny Cape Verde would be into the knockout round with a win over Saudi Arabia.
- Colombia-Portugal will decide the winner of Group K.
The U.S. path
This much is clear: The only match the U.S. might play in the Eastern time zone will be the World Cup final.
The Americans will begin the Round of 32 in Santa Clara, California, on July 1. If they win, they'll go to Seattle for the Round of 16. Win that, and it'll be off to Inglewood, California, for the quarterfinals. Win that, and Arlington, Texas, will be calling for the semifinals.
The most likely opponent for the U.S. in the Round of 32 is Bosnia and Herzegovina. After that, it would seem likely that Egypt could be waiting.
What happens now (or starting Sunday)
Once group play ends, the drama really begins.
It's called the knockout stage for a reason - if you don't win in this round, you're knocked out of the tournament. (The only time that won't apply is the semifinals, since the losers of those games will get sent to Miami Gardens, Florida, to decide third place.)
A team will have to win five elimination games to win the World Cup title.
Scoring is up
Everybody should have predicted that the record for total goals in a World Cup would get smashed in this tournament. After all, there are 104 matches in this event, compared with just 64 matches in the format that was used over the previous seven World Cups.
And the record for most goals will fall, almost certainly on Thursday or Friday. There were 172 scored at Qatar four years ago; there have been 161 goals through 54 matches so far this year.
But what is noteworthy in this tournament is that scoring per game is at its highest level in more than 50 years - 2.98 goals per match.
An average of 2.81 goals per match were scored at Spain in 1982, 2.97 goals per match at Mexico in 1970, and 3.60 goals per match at Sweden in 1958.
That said, this year's games have been defensive battles compared to what happened in 1954 in Switzerland, when games featured a staggering 5.38 goals on average. That tournament included a game with a 7-5 final score, still the highest-scoring game in men's World Cup history.
The pace
By the end of Day 17 of the World Cup on Saturday, 72 matches will be done, 32 will remain. That's the day the group stage ends and the knockout stage - where every match until the semifinals is of the win-or-go-home variety - begins.
And then things slow down. A bit, anyway.
There is only one Round of 32 game on the schedule for Sunday - South Africa vs. Canada at Los Angeles. Things pick up again after that and matches are planned every day until July 8. That means the tournament will have 27 consecutive days of play before everyone gets a day off.
A rematch?
Argentina and France gave us an epic World Cup final in 2022. It's not outside of the realm that we get a rematch this year; the way the bracket is looking at this point (and this could easily change), they should be on opposite sides, making a collision in the final possible.
Argentina has five goals through its first two matches, and Messi - who turned 39 on Wednesday - has all five of them. Messi now has 18 goals in World Cup play, an all-time record.
When Argentina plays in the Round of 32, Messi will basically get a home game in Miami. It won't be at the stadium that he and Inter Miami call home, but it will be in Miami Gardens and in what has been his home market for the last three years since he came to MLS.
Mbappe has four goals for France so far in this tournament, giving him 16 in World Cups, tying for second-most all-time with Miroslav Klose of Germany - who held the record before this year's tournament started.
