UH statistician says Astros have 2 to 1 advantage to win World Series

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Tuesday, October 26, 2021
Stats show Astros are favored to win the World Series
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What are the odds of the Astros beating the Braves in the World Series? We went straight to the experts, turns out the 'Stros are a pretty safe bet.

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Game 1 of the World Series starts Tuesday night, and turns out, the Astros are a pretty safe bet!

A statistician at the University of Houston said the odds are in Houston's favor. The only problem is that the Braves beat the odds to get in this series. One factor that may make the difference, though, is home-field advantage.

Fans were still flooding the team store on Monday.

"You saw Minute Maid last series. It was rocking. So, I think getting two games at home to start is going to be huge for us," Astros fan Matt Ramirez said.

"It being Houston and being in Houston, it'll help," Astros fan Wendy Brooks added.

The fan factor could come into play, big time, on Tuesday and Wednesday when the Astros host the Braves at Minute Maid Park.

"When the World Series comes up, people are always interested in trying to figure out the probabilities," said Cathy Poliak, a statistician at UH.

She's used to fielding these questions as the associate director of masters in statistics and data sciences at UH. After running the numbers, she said having four games at home gives the Astros a 2 to 1 advantage over the Braves.

"The home advantage is really helpful," she said.

The numbers also looked good for the Astros when comparing their percentage of regular-season wins to Atlanta's record. The hometown team comes out in the top 8% more.

"I went ahead and did the replication on the computer and simulations on the computer, as well, to figure this out," Poliak said.

The only handicap for the 'Stros is Atlanta's record on the road. They won more away games this season than they did at Truist Park. The numbers showed this series could go all seven games, though, giving the Astros a numerical edge in the end.

"I think that they'll win. It's a really good chance of them actually winning the World Series overall," Poliak said.

A summation of victory from an expert plus a talented team multiplied by thousands of faithful fans at Minute Maid equals a winning equation for the World Series.