Tropical Depression Two slowly churns, impacts to Texas are possible later this week

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Tropical Depression Two formed in the eastern Gulf Sunday and is forecast to become Tropical Storm Bertha later today. There's a chance Texas could be impacted later this week, but a lot of uncertainty remains in the exact track and possible intensity of soon-to-be Bertha.

While the eastern Gulf is active, the western Gulf is quiet for now. High pressure and a heat dome that settled in over the weekend will sit overhead early on this week. Monday temperatures will climb into the upper 90s in the afternoon. Add in the humidity and the heat index will make it feel like the triple digits outside early as 11 am and peaking at 106 or 107 later in the day. We'll also have a high UV index with mostly sunny conditions expected once again. As for Saharan dust, the plume that was overhead this weekend has mixed out and will not be as much of an impact this week.

What should we know about Tropical Depression Two?

Tropical Depression Two is expected to sit off the coast of Florida in the eastern gulf early on this week and strengthen into a tropical storm, named Bertha, later today. This potential storm will make a slow progression to the northwest early on this week, eventually reaching the coast of Louisiana Wednesday. By the time we hit Wednesday and Thursday, the storm will begin accelerating farther west, potentially pushing towards Texas late Thursday, Friday, and early Saturday. The current National Hurricane Center forecast is showing tropical depression intensity with 35mph winds in Texas, but a storm holding farther south would be stronger, and one tracking farther north would likely dissipate before it ever makes it to Texas.

So what's the outlook for the Houston area this week?

For now the western gulf will stay hot and dry thanks to a heat dome settling in over the state this weekend. That continues throughout next week and we're expecting this next week to be the hottest stretch of summer so far. Morning lows will consistently be in the mid-upper 70s with afternoon highs in the upper 90s. Late in the week things could change depending on the exact path and possible intensity of Tropical Depression Two which is forecast to become tropical storm Bertha Monday. Southeast Texas is included in the forecast cone for the tropical disturbance with the system reaching the Houston area Friday/Saturday. That, of course, can also change this week.

Any rain in the near future?

We're dry through Wednesday. The exact path of Tropical Depression Two could potentially increase rain chances late-week, but it's still a bit too early to have any real confidence in the path.

What else are you tracking in the tropics?

Our focus right now is on the Gulf, there are no other legitimate storms or developing storms worth keeping watch on. Visit our Tropical Update page for a more in-depth tropical weather discussion and forecast.

13 ALERT RADAR MAPS:
Southeast Texas
Houston
Harris County
Galveston County
Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties
Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties
Brazoria/Matagorda Counties

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