Democratic deadlock in Texas

March 3, 2008 9:32:04 AM PST
On this eve of this pivotal primary, the new numbers for Texas, released today, show a dogfight on the Democratic side, while John McCain continues to hold onto a solid lead on the Republican end. We've been polling since mid February and the polls have never gotten out of the margin of error. In other words, the race has always been too close to call. But never this close.

The poll puts the race in an absolute deadlock. Barack Obama is at 49 percent and Hillary Clinton is at 48 percent with a 3.5 percent margin of error. It mimics what other polls show. RealClearPolitics.com averages all the Texas polls and shows Obama with a .6 of a point lead. This is far closer than last week, when Obama had a four point lead.

As for early voting, Clinton took an early lead and is maintaining it, 50 to 48 percent over Obama. Among Hispanic voters, Clinton leads that segment of the population 64 to 33 percent.

And there is some more good news for Clinton on the Hispanic vote. Our Survey USA pollsters predict the number of Hispanic voters is rising and the percent of black voters decreasing. That's good news for Clinton. [RESULTS FROM OUR POLL: Democrat | Republican]

As for that ad Clinton was running over the weekend, it does not seem to have shored up her national security credentials at all. Voters who think terrorism is the most serious issue facing the next president favor Obama by 62 to 30 percent.

Obama and Clinton returned to Texas after campaigning in Ohio. Obama and his wife will be in north and central Texas before heading to Houston for tonight's rally at the George R. Brown Convention Center. Senator Clinton will make several stops in Texas, including Austin and Beaumont. She'll spend primary night in Ohio, while Obama will watch the returns in San Antonio.

Republican candidate John McCain will be in Houston tomorrow after stops in central Texas today. Unlike the Democrats, he actually took the weekend off, thanks to a comfortable lead over rival Mike Huckabee. Huckabee is also traveling the state and will be in Houston tonight at the Westside Tennis and Fitness Center. He'll then spend primary night in San Antonio, while McCain will be in Dallas. Victories in all four of tomorrow's primaries could give McCain the number of delegates needed for the Republican nomination.

*Are you a politics junkie? We have more political gems on our four political blogs written by a White House insider, Phd and Eyewitness News reporters.


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