Experts believe declining public school enrollment could cause more districts to close campuses

SUGAR LAND, Texas (KTRK) -- Education experts said Fort Bend ISD may not be the only one to make tough decisions soon about whether to close campuses.

On Monday, Fort Bend ISD released a proposal that could close seven elementary schools. A proposal district leaders said they're considering because of declining enrollment.

It's not alone. This month, Spring ISD decided to close two of its schools due to enrollment.

Tough decisions Baker Institute at Rice fellow Bill King said may spread to other districts.

"Schools are facing a double barrel problem here," King said. "One is the fundamental demographics of there being less children born every year, but also they're facing increase competition from alternatives."

King said immigration policies are adding to the issue as well. As far as competition, he said that could be even worse next year when the state's private school voucher program begins. "It's going to effect enrollment, to what degree it's going to affect different schools, it's going to be a different scenario that plays out," King explained.

Earlier this year, the Baker Institute at Rice looked at HISD enrollment. It found more than 50 campuses are at less than 50 percent capacity.

More than 80 schools the report found are between 50 and 75 percent capacity. HISD said it's exploring its options, including closing schools.

"We're actually somewhat behind cities on the East Coast, especially in the Midwest also where they've already been dealing with this for a number of years," King explained.

One of those east coast cities is Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The report shows that more than 10 percent of its campuses were closed about a decade ago.

For a positive impact, it found impacted students from poorer performing schools, saw improvements at the new locations. But on the negative side, the study also found academic achievement dropped for students that took in new classmates.

Studies also found behavioral issues, including increased absences. Outcomes King believes districts here will have to face as well if enrollment numbers don't change.

"You just can't keep schools like that open," King said. "Not only is it tremendously inefficient, but it becomes a lot harder to offer special services, special needs, art classes."

Fort Bend ISD officials said before it makes any decisions, it wants to hear from parents. Trustees plan to vote on the proposal in March.

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