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Betting tips for Saturday's wild-card games: Odds, analysis, picks and trends

ByESPN

Saturday, January 11, 2025

The NFL playoffs get underway Saturday with a pair of AFC wild-card matchups.

The first game features the fifth-seeded Los Angeles Chargers visiting the AFC South champion and fourth-seeded Houston Texans.

The second game will showcase MVP contender Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens hosting the AFC North rival Pittsburgh Steelers.

We break down both games and offer lines, props, picks, trends and more to help you prepare for any betting opportunities.

The Ravens (12-5, 10-7 ATS) enter Saturday's game as a near double-digit favorite at home against the Steelers (10-7, 11-6 ATS).

Baltimore ended the regular season with four straight wins, while the Steelers dropped their final four.

The Ravens are tied with the Buffalo Bills as the third choice to win the Super Bowl, trailing only the Detroit Lions (+300) and Kansas City Chiefs (+350). Pittsburgh is at the bottom of the pack at 75-1.

The teams split the season series, with the Steelers edging the Ravens 18-16 in mid-November. Baltimore took the most recent matchup 34-17 in Week 16.

Saturday night's kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on Prime Video.

Game lines

Spread:9.5 (Opened Ravens -8.5)

>Money line:Ravens -550, Steelers +380

>Over/Under:43.5 (Opened 46.5)

First-half spread: Ravens -6.5 (-105), Steelers +6.5 (-125)

>Ravens total points:26.5 (Over -125/Under -105)

>Steelers total points:16.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

Matchup predictor (by ESPN Analytics):Ravens 72.2% chance to win

Player props

Passing

Lamar Jackson total passing yards: 224.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

>Jackson total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -150/Under +115)

>Russell Wilson total passing yards: 199.5 (Over -135/Under +105)

>Wilson total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +170/Under -230)

Rushing

Derrick Henry total rushing yards: 99.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

>Lamar Jackson total rushing yards: 49.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

>Najee Harris total rushing yards: 44.5 (Over +100/Under -130)

>Jaylen Warren total rushing yards: 34.5 (Over -105/Under -125)

Receiving

George Pickens total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over +110/Under -140)

>Pat Freiermuth total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over -105/Under -125)

>Mark Andrews total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

>Rashod Bateman total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

>Calvin Austin III total receiving yards: 24.5 (Over -125/Under -105)

>Isaiah Likely total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over -105/Under -125)

>Warren total receiving yards: 24.5 (Over +110/Under -140)

Tyler Fulghum's pick

Ravens -9.5

It is, of course, a lot of points to lay in a playoff game, and I'm always happy to take points with Mike Tomlin, but this Ravens team might be the best in the NFL. Coming off its Week 14 bye, John Harbaugh's team is 4-0 straight up and against the spread, with each win coming by at least 15 points. That includes a 17-point win at home against the Steelers in Week 16.

Betting trends and more

Courtesy ESPN Research

In Mike Tomlin-John Harbaugh matchups, underdogs are 25-10-1 ATS and 20-16 outright, including the Steelers going 13-4-1 ATS and 10-8 outright as underdogs. However, the Steelers have never closed as more than 7.5-point underdogs against the Ravens in the history of the rivalry.

Eight of the past nine meetings have gone under the total. Unders are 14-6 in the past 20 meetings.

Tomlin is 53-53 outright in his career as an underdog (second best in Super Bowl era, min. 10 games). He is 63-39-4 ATS in his career as an underdog (.618). However, Tomlin is just 4-8 ATS as an underdog of more than a touchdown (7.5 or more points), which includes blowout losses in the 2021 and 2023 wild-card rounds.

Favorites of at least nine points are 15-1 outright and 13-3 ATS in wild-card games. The only loss was by the only road team to be that big a favorite (2011New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks, -10). Double-digit favorites are 10-1 outright and 9-2 ATS in wild-card games (double-digit home favorites are 10-0 outright and 9-1 ATS).

The Ravens have the highest over percentage in the NFL (13-4).

The Ravens have covered four straight games entering the playoffs.

Six of the past seven Steelers' road games have gone over the total. Five of the Ravens' past six home games have gone over the total.

The Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their past five playoff games. They are 2-8-1 ATS in the playoffs since 2011 and 7-10-1 ATS in the playoffs under Tomlin.

The Steelers are 6-11 ATS in the first half this season.

Steelers first-quarter overs are 11-5-1 this season, tied for the best mark in the NFL. Ravens first-quarter overs are 4-12-1 ATS, the worst mark in the NFL.

The Ravens have gone over their team total in 12 of 17 games, tied for the second-highest rate in the NFL.

Saturday's wild-card doubleheader kicks off with the Chargers (11-6, 13-4 ATS) visiting the Texans (10-7, 7-10 ATS).

The Chargers (30-1 to win the Super Bowl) won their past three regular-season games, including the final two on the road. The Texans (75-1 to win the Super Bowl) dropped two of their final three games but are coming off a win in their regular-season finale.

Los Angeles goes into the matchup as 3-point favorites.

Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS/Paramount+.

Game lines

Spread:Chargers -3 (Opened Chargers -2.5)

>Money line:Chargers -155, Texans +135

>Over/Under:41.5 (Opened 44.5)

First-half spread: Chargers -0.5 (-120), Texans +0.5 (-110)

>Chargers total points:21.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

>Texans total points:19.5 (Over -125/Under -105)

Matchup predictor (by ESPN Analytics): Chargers 52.8% chance to win