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ABC13 Weather Watch: Potential Storm Five forms in the Gulf, impacts expected Tuesday

ByTravis Herzog, David Tillman, Elita Loresca, Kevin Roth, and Elyse Smith KTRK logo

Monday, August 31, 2026 3:16PM

Tropical disturbance could bring heavy rain, street flooding Tuesday

A tropical disturbance over the northern Gulf could bring heavy downpours and the chance for street flooding Tuesday. That's why Tuesday is now an ABC13 Weather Watch.

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Potential Storm Five formed in the Gulf Monday morning with impacts expected Tuesday. That's why Tuesday and Wednesday have now an ABC13 Weather Watch with the potential for strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall that could lead to street and isolated flash flooding.

Monday will be another sunny and hot day with the chance for a passing shower or storm. High temperatures will climb into the upper 90s under a partly cloudy sky. An Ozone Pollution Watch is also in effect once again for Brazoria, Galveston and Harris counties. It's later Monday night into early Tuesday morning when moisture levels begin to increase across the coast, with likely a stormy start to the day Tuesday with the chance for some tropical-like impacts throughout the day.

What should we know about Potential Storm Five?

The tropical Wave in the northern Gulf has a 70 percent chance of forming into a tropical depression or tropical storm this week as it slowly tracks west along the Gulf Coast towards Houston. But no matter if this disturbance is able to organize into a named system or not, it's going to produce some heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast early this week. Current forecast timing has this heavy rainfall in Southeast Texas arriving as early as Tuesday morning with rounds of showers and storms continuing throughout the day. The main concern will be the potential for street and area flooding as well as flash flooding depending on when and where the heaviest downpours occur. The tropica wave, or tropical system if it forms, will then continue to track north into Wednesday, though scattered showers and storms will still be possible from the remaining moisture on Wednesday and Thursday.

How much rain are we talking about this week?

Tuesday there's a 70% chance for showers and storms, which could be heavy at times thanks to this tropical disturbance. Rainfall rates could be around 1 to 3 inches an hour too at times, which could lead to street flooding. Overall the most rain we'll pick up this week will fall on Tuesday with more scattered downpours Wednesday through Friday with rain chances sitting at 30 to 40% thereafter. And while the final totals will be dependent on this tropical disturbance, most of Southeast Texas could pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain on average with some areas receiving upwards of 6 inches of rain this week.

What does the rest of the week look like?

Beyond Tuesday and the main tropical-impact day, scattered showers and storms will still be possible through Thursday as any remaining tropical moisture could lead to further rainfall. That said, it wont be as hot with highs likely only staying within the low-mid 90s day by day. It'll also be quite humid out, especially in the morning, with morning low temperatures still in the upper 70s all week long.

How about an early outlook for Labor Day Weekend?

At this time any tropical mischief related to this disturbance in the northern gulf should be out of here. We'll be back to a warm and calm weather pattern, which means hot afternoons with highs in the mid-upper 90s and the chance for a few pop-up showers and storms with the sea breeze Saturday through Monday.

What else are you tracking in the tropics?

Aside from the disturbance in the northern Gulf, we are also tracking the remnants of Dolly which could regenerate when they get near the Bahamas. For a more in-depth discussion on what's happening in the tropics, visit our Daily Tropical Update page.