Will contenders bite the bullet on prospect deals?

Houston Astros players, coaches, ushers, security personnel, Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell and anyone else with an appreciation for the franchise's 56-year title-free history would like nothing more than to see a championship trophy presentation in October.

General manager Jeff Luhnow is firmly on board with that scenario. In Luhnow's world, the only thing better than winning a World Series would be winning a World Series without putting a crimp in his pride and joy -- the farm system.

Luhnow drew a line in the sand of sorts this week when he said he had no plans to "overpay drastically" for a pitcher before Monday's 4 p.m. ET non-waiver trade deadline. In MLB general manager-speak, that's code for "keep your greedy paws off our prospects."

Lots of baseball executives fall in love with their talent pipelines, but Luhnow is known in the industry for having a pine tar-caliber grip on prospects. If an opposing team's trade overture makes reference to Kyle Tucker, Francis Marte, Forrest Whitley, Yordan Alvarez, Derek Fisher and certain other aspiring Astros, it's probably a nonstarter.

"Jeff values his prospects very highly," an executive with an American League club said.

That's no knock on Luhnow. It just means that teams on the other end of the phone are likely to meet with a different reception than they might get when talking to, say, Boston Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski.

The balance between instant gratification and long-term thinking is especially tenuous this week, as teams contemplate moves that could alter the dynamic in August, September and October. Think back to last year's trade deadline, when the Cleveland Indians sent prospects Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield to the New York Yankees for Andrew Miller. All Miller did was strike out 30 batters in 19 postseason innings, win the American League Championship Series MVP award and spur talk of a new baseball role: the "super reliever."

The 2017 deadline falls short on players of that magnitude. Detroit outfielder J.D. Martinez is an excellent middle-of-the-order bat, but he's a two-month rental, and the Arizona Diamondbacks acquired him for a prospect package that some talent evaluators described as "light."

Texas Rangers pitcher Yu Darvish has a front-of-the-rotation pedigree, but he's also a rental in the middle of a bumpy season. Darvish has a 4.01 ERA, and he was flogged for 10 runs in a 3-inning showcase against the Miami Marlins on Wednesday.

Oakland Athletics pitcher Sonny Gray, the deadline's other headliner, wins raves for his makeup and competitiveness. But most clubs see Gray as more a No. 2-3 type starter, and they're concerned about his durability in light of his recent injury history.

"Sonny Gray is a very good pitcher, but he's not a Clayton Kershaw or a Chris Sale," an American League executive said. "He's not a No. 1."

To this point, the Athletics' front office is pricing Gray like a No. 1, and teams in the chase can only guess where talks will lead. Will Oakland lower its demands at the deadline or hang onto Gray and explore the possibility of trading him in the offseason? Or will a potential suitor fall victim to the deadline adrenaline rush and take the plunge?

Within baseball circles, the biggest intrigue revolves around the Dodgers and Astros, who've been far and away the two best teams in the game. Any move they make will be tailored toward enhancing their chances in October, because August and September are a mere formality on their way to 100-plus victories.

Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers' executive vice president of baseball operations, has a well-known dislike for July trades because the values are so out of whack. If the Dodgers do make a deal, they'd prefer it doesn't include one of the franchise's top three prospects -- outfielder Alex Verdugo and pitchers Yadier Alvarez and Walker Buehler.

Then again, the Dodgers haven't won a World Series since 1988. If Friedman and his front-office team think Darvish could be the missing piece, are they willing to say no because of Alex Verdugo or Walker Buehler?

Houston's perceived weakness is starting pitching, but the Astros could be fine in October with a rotation of Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr., and two from the Charlie Morton-Mike Fiers-Collin McHugh-Brad Peacock combo platter. It's not outlandish to think they're all capable of keeping a high-powered Houston team in a playoff game for 5-6 innings.

Luhnow could opt for Plan B and look to make an impact bullpen acquisition instead. But if he's resistant to moving a top prospect for a starter, he might be similarly hamstrung in his pursuit of Zach Britton, Justin Wilson or Brad Hand.

Even the Yankees, who've suddenly found religion when it comes to prospects, have a tough call to make. New York is probably a year ahead of schedule thanks to the emergence of Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge and now Frazier. But pennant race euphoria has its limits. Frazier, Gleyber Torres, Sheffield, Chance Adams, Dustin Fowler and James Kaprielian are an integral part of the team's plans, and they're not going anywhere this month.

Negotiations are fluid and value judgments are always subject to change at the trade deadline. But it appears that several contenders are prepared to say no or downsize their expectations rather than pay a price they deem excessive.

"At the end of the day, as we get to the deadline, there are always teams that overreach and overreact," an AL executive said. "But I don't think you'll see people giving up players who are close to the majors unless they feel really good about their [postseason] chances.

"It's a young man's game now."