Is it time to trade deGrom? The Mets have a big choice to make

I'm not advocating that the Mets trade Jacob deGrom. I'm not advocating that the Mets keep Jacob deGrom. This isn't a hot take. There are plenty of those all over talk radio or the internet or your local bar -- if going to your local bar to argue about sports is still a thing people do. Either way, if you want a hot take about a New York pitcher's future on a struggling team, it won't exactly be hard to find.

Instead, this is an overview of The Situation. A look at some of the factors that go into trading a pitcher of deGrom's ability. The most likely scenario is the Mets don't trade their ace away in the next six days and we go through the whole rumor mill again in the offseason ... and possibly next July, too.

1. The Mets stink.

This is the first step, right? If the Mets were in playoff contention, they would be talking about adding a pitcher, not trading their best one away. Yet here they are, in last place in the National League East, tied with the Marlins at 14 games out of first place, but with a slightly worse winning percentage. Considering the Marlins traded away 17.3 WAR of outfielders in the offseason, this isn't exactly where the Mets or their fans expected to be on July 26 -- especially after the team went 11-1 to start 2018, and a brief spell of optimism could be felt at Citi Field. Remember that? Well, they've gone 31-56 since, and here we are.

It's one of those seasons when everything that could go wrong has pretty much gone wrong, other than deGrom. This is best summed up by a Facebook ad I saw the other day: It was for a Mets T-shirt featuring little caricature heads of Yoenis Cespedes, deGrom, David Wright, Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey. Cespedes is now having season-ending surgery on his heels; Wright hasn't played since 2016; Syndergaard has hand, foot and mouth disease; and Harvey pitched his way to Cincinnati. I have no idea why a T-shirt left over from the 2015 World Series suddenly appeared on my Facebook feed, but it sure does demonstrate how bad things have gotten for the Mets and why deGrom may be available.

2. DeGrom has a ton of value.

He's 5-5 with a 1.71 ERA with 159 strikeouts in 131.1 innings and just 95 hits. He leads the National League in both FanGraphs WAR and Baseball-Reference WAR -- that's among pitchers and position players. He could win the Cy Young Award while finishing with fewer than 10 wins (thank you, offense and bullpen!).

We also know there aren't difference-making starting pitchers out there. Chris Archer? He hasn't had an ERA under 4.00 since 2015. Cole Hamels? Too many home runs. J.A. Happ or Kevin Gausman? They're OK, but not guys you want starting Game 1 of a playoff series.

As a bonus, deGrom is under team control through 2020. So you're getting him for a playoff run in 2018 and two more seasons. That's the same scenario as when the Astros acquired Justin Verlander last season and, like Verlander, deGrom could be a guy who leads the way to a World Series title.

3. Who might want deGrom?

Everybody! A couple of weeks ago, I suggested the Brewers should go after him, as their window is now. I heard from a lot of Brewers fans on Twitter who didn't like the idea, not wanting to mortgage the farm system and pointing out that the team needed a bat more than a pitcher. Well, they could still use an upgrade at second base or shortstop or both (and, really, isn't it time to forget about Ryan Braun and his .232/.278/.423 line?), but I still like the idea of acquiring a No. 1 starter. I guess aces aren't for everybody.

The Dodgers already made one big splash. Will they make a second one? The Diamondbacks and Rockies are breathing down their necks.

The Braves, other than playing in the same division, are a perfect match, with a loaded farm system, including close-to-the-majors types like Kolby Allard and Austin Riley.

Never count out the Cubs, although I'm not sure they have a top prospect to headline a deal and Ian Happ probably isn't a centerpiece kind of player.

Two wild cards: the Astros and Padres. The Astros don't need deGrom, but remember that Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton are free agents. What if they included Lance McCullers Jr. and Kyle Tucker, slot in deGrom behind Verlander in the rotation and move Morton to the bullpen in October? The Padres aren't chasing the playoffs, but the New York Post's Joel Sherman mentioned that they've checked in, looking to acquire a much-needed ace for 2019 and 2020. The Padres could wait until the offseason to pursue deGrom -- but that's only if the Mets don't trade him now.

4. What about the 2019 Mets?

How do the Mets view themselves? Is the front office going to chalk up 2018 the same way it did 2017 and once again look to build around a potential dynamic duo of deGrom and Syndergaard? Or do you look to build the team a different way? They already have so many unknowns for next season. Cespedes is out eight to 10 months. Michael Conforto hasn't hit after last fall's shoulder surgery. Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier have supplied sub-.700 OPS totals. Dominic Smith has shown no evidence that he's a major league-caliber player. Amed Rosario is better, but he doesn't look like an impact player. Their catchers can't stay healthy. The bullpen is a mess.

There is a lot of work needed to build a good team here even with deGrom in the rotation. And while keeping him means you face the risk of an injury and his trade value imploding, being cautious does give the front office more time to evaluate not just the 2019 team, but to better vet trade offers. As Buster Olney wrote earlier this week:

• Everybody dreams of Jacob deGrom, but even if the Mets decided to seriously listen to offers for him -- something they should do -- they might already have run out of time to do the proper and thorough preparation needed to execute such an incredibly important trade. The farm systems of potential trade partners would need to be fully combed, the targeted prospects would need to be vetted, the full leverage would need to be wielded. It probably would be better for the Mets to keep deGrom into the winter and take more time to explore any offers than to try to throw together something, at a time when their leadership is under siege.

5. So what should the Mets do?

Hot take coming in 3, 2, 1 ...