ESPN Forecast: James Harden will win first MVP in landslide

Some competitive elections aren't called until days after the polls close, while others see the confetti drop in the hotel ballroom well before the majority of ballots are counted. The race for the NBA's 2017-18 Most Valuable Player falls squarely in that second camp, with [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/3992/james-harden" ]James Harden[/url] poised to run away with the award in a landslide.[br /][br /]Though MVP voters aren't furnished with any definitive criteria by the league, most consider some combination of statistical production, team excellence, a compelling narrative and, for some, novelty. Like [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/3975/stephen-curry" ]Stephen Curry[/url] in 2016, Harden sweeps every category. He might not achieve Curry's feat of a unanimous vote, but all indications are he won't be far off.[br /][Ads /][br /]With less than three weeks left in the season, we asked our ESPN Forecast panel to weigh in on the MVP race. Here are the results of our poll.[br /][br /]Who WILL win MVP?[/h2][br /][br /][img SRC="http://a.espncdn.com/i/infographics/20180222_nba_mvp_race/harden_advanced_stats.png" ][br /][br /]The ESPN Forecast panel, which relies on the "wisdom of the crowd," decisively chose Harden as the likely winner. This makes sense, because Harden both excels in traditional box score categories (the league leader in points per game with 31.0, and third in assists with 8.7) and leads all players in [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM" ]real plus-minus[/url]wins (an estimate of the number of wins each player has contributed to his team), as well as player efficiency rating.[br /][br /]Optics also matter in the MVP race, especially late in the season, so signature performances such as Harden's nationally televised 42-point outburst in Portland on Tuesday night, when the Rockets snapped the Trail Blazers' 13-game winning streak, help to pad the résumé.[br /][br /]Forecast voters predict a nip-and-tuck contest for second place, as [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/1966/lebron-james" ]LeBron James[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/6583/anthony-davis" ]Anthony Davis[/url] have separated themselves from the rest of the pack. The Cavs -- at least offensively, which is how the award is generally won -- have looked unstoppable, with LeBron posting a line of 31.4 points, 10.2 rebounds and 9.9 assists in the month of March. Davis' dominance has made the [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/no/new-orleans-pelicans" ]New Orleans Pelicans[/url] a feel-good story as they fend off a scrum of quality Western Conference teams for what increasingly appears to be a likely postseason berth.[br /][br /][img SRC="http://a.espncdn.com/i/mlb/infographics/greyline.png" ][br /][Ads /][br /]Who SHOULD win MVP?[/h2][br /][br /][img SRC="http://a.espncdn.com/i/infographics/20180222_nba_mvp_race/harden_narrative.png" ][br /][br /]If there's any debate as to the most deserving candidate in 2018, the Forecast panel couldn't find one, as 89 percent of voters picked Harden as the ultimate winner. The remaining 11 percent split their votes between James and Davis.[br /][br /]This is a far cry from last season's three-way battle between Harden, [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/6450/kawhi-leonard" ]Kawhi Leonard[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/3468/russell-westbrook" ]Russell Westbrook[/url], who ultimately won the award. That campaign featured pros and cons for each candidate, as voters grappled with competing factors, traditional vs. advanced stats, the value of defense and the question of whether a sub-elite team could rightfully produce an MVP.[br /][br /]The panel clearly believes Harden presents no such conflicts for voters. For those who hold tight to the you-get-one-player-for-one-game benchmark, a strong case still exists for James. But voters have demonstrated year after year that they don't see the honor as one of lifetime achievement, but as an affirmation of a single season's body of work.[br /][br /]As enumerated above, all classifications of voters -- statheads, traditionalists, those inspired by a good story -- can claim Harden as their choice.[br/][br/][sectionHeader]Related Video[/sectionHeader][promoExternal HREF="http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=22859547&ex_cid=espnapi_affiliate_abcotv" IMAGE="http://a.espncdn.com/media/motion/2018/0321/dm_180321_NBA_THE_JUMP_MVP_CONVO_IS_CLOSED/dm_180321_NBA_THE_JUMP_MVP_CONVO_IS_CLOSED.jpg" TITLE="Nichols: 'MVP conversation is closed'" DESCRIPTION="Rachel Nichols says she doesn't want to hear MVP cases made for any player other than James Harden." ]